Winter has just come for everyone, but for the Reds, this winter may last a while. To be specific, the team that the front office intended to be a contender for the division crown in the past two seasons has no real sense of direction of what route they want to take. Team leader Nick Castellanos is sitting in free agency after opting out of his Reds contract, and stinginess with finances leaves it unlikely that he will be a Red in 2021. Additionally, multiple integral starting pitchers have been rumored to be dangling on the block for teams to bite at, and surprising 2021 gem Wade Miley was just as surprisingly waived and claimed by the division-rival Cubs. Moreover, they don’t have a minor league system that can safely sustain keeping the Reds in the playoff mix. Was this team crippled by irresponsible trades and spending, or are they in this situation due to uncontrollable circumstances?
2018 Dodgers Trade
On December 21, 2018, the Reds dealt away top prospects 2B Jeter Downs and SP Josiah Gray along with SP Homer Bailey for Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, Yasiel Puig, and cash considerations. Granted, this wasn’t entirely then-president of baseball operations Dick Williams’ fault that Homer Bailey got signed to a horrendous, 6-year, $105M contract after 2013. However, the move meant to set the foundation for winning now ended up having large repercussions for the Reds. For starters, the Dodgers used Jeter Downs has a trade chip to acquire superstar Mookie Betts, who they promptly signed to a 13-year extension. Subsequently, the Dodgers used Josiah Gray to acquire ace Max Scherzer from the Nationals, and while Scherzer is no longer a Dodger, Josiah Gray has shown superstar potential with his athletic frame and efficient pitch stuff. The only three good things that happened for the Reds were relief from Bailey’s crippling contract, Kyle Farmer’s fascinating emergence as a useful utility man, and the usage of Yasiel Puig as the centerpiece for the deal that brought 2020 NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer to the Queen City. However, dumping the Bailey contract, Puig, and Farmer did not help the future of the Reds very much, while losing Gray and Downs hurt the future value of this team tremendously. Additionally, the money freed up from the long-term relief from moving the Bailey contract was used in an egregious manner.
2019-20 Free Agency
With the long-term flexibility created by dumping Bailey the year before, the Reds used their money to sign slugger Nick Castellanos, the scrappy Mike Moustakas, and Japanese wild-card Shogo Akiyama. Castellanos turned out to be just fine, as they paid the correct amount for a 27-year-old who was a pure slugger while ending up paying off for the Reds in the long run. However, the Moustakas and Akiyama deals have proven to be complete disasters. First, Mike Moustakas was brought into the Reds organization to provide stable veteran leadership and bring a scrappy style of play to the team. Moustakas has played a total of 48% of the games that he could’ve possibly played in and his return from his most recent injury in 2021 proved to be one of the most futile stretches in Reds history for ANY player. Additionally, this Reds team has already developed a leadership identity without the need of veterans other than Joey Votto, rendering Moustakas’ services virtually pointless with 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B all locked down for the foreseeable future. Moreover, the Reds gave this 4-year contract to a player entering his age-31 campaign, a player who had recorded an average of 2.4 WAR the previous three seasons. Giving him a big contract because of his veteran status and playoff experience has proven to be irresponsible as they are stuck with the 33-year-old infielder through the next two seasons unless they package him with more valuable prospects just for salary relief (cough, aforementioned Homer Bailey trade). Second, Akiyama was expected to have star potential due to his consistent success in Japan. Akiyama has translated to America as a glorified defensive replacement, bringing only an above-average glove and a noodle for a bat. Akiyama has not hit a home run in his 142 career games, even while calling a notorious hitter’s park his home stadium. The lack of power (or general contact ability, to be fair) has greatly diminished his value, as he’s accumulated a whopping -0.1 WAR over his Reds career, making the evaluation process for deciding that he will be good in America somewhat questionable. The two will count $24M against the payroll in 2022, which greatly limits what the Reds will be able to do in free agency this year, just as the two contracts did last year.
COVID-19 and the Unreliability of Small-Market Sustained Success
With all this being said about general irresponsibility, it’s important to note that COVID-19 severely limited the Reds’ budget. As a small-market team, it is already hard to maintain success in the MLB, as the October throne is often taken by teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees who all have large fanbases. Therefore, the effect of COVID-19 on the Reds’ budget likely made it much harder to spend any money on free agents, with the preexisting strength of big market teams. Additionally, small market champions like the 2015 Royals have seen their brief runs of success melt away within a few years, and this team was built to be sustained for a much shorter time, with worse players anchoring the squad.
In conclusion, a rash of irresponsible moves coupled with the damage of the pandemic has made the future of the Reds look bleak. However, perhaps it is too early to say if they botched the rebuild, as rookie gems Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson along with golden ticket prospects like Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, and Jose Barrero have all shown flashes of being able to anchor the Reds for years to come. Additionally, the Reds have a legend and leader in Joey Votto and a star slugger in Jesse Winker, along with rotation stars Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. Perhaps, these inclinations to dump salary on other teams are only a plan to pave the way to keep the new era of Reds baseball alive. Cincinnati will simply have to place their trust in Nick Krall and let the future come to them.
