ADP and Average PPG: Midseason Analysis

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    We’ve reached the halfway point in the 2019-2020 NFL season and most fantasy leagues have a clear frontrunner. It’s been an exciting season thus far with many incredible sleepers as well as numerous disappointing busts.

    GRAPH OF ADP and average PPG including all players and individual positions.

    Confusing? We thought so. Let’s break it down.

    ADP and Average PPG for Quarterback

    Prior to the season, Patrick Mahomes was the consensus #1 QB in all of fantasy football. He was picked 33rd in most leagues, 5 picks in front of Deshaun Watson and 13 points in front of Aaron Rodgers. Before his unforeseeable injury, he did not disappoint and ranked top 5 in Average QB PPG. However, not much separates the 5 highest drafted Quarterbacks this year. In fact Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson (4th and 5th picked QB’s) are having the best seasons in terms of fantasy. Russell Wilson was picked 71st in most leagues and this proves that QB’s are the most replaceable position in fantasy football. For next year DO NOT REACH for a Quarterback but be certain to pick a top 7-10 QB, which shouldn’t be difficult considering most leagues consist of 10 players.

    Notable Busts: Cam Newton (7th picked QB), Baker Mayfield (13th picked QB)
    Notable Breakouts:
    Lamar Jackson (4th picked QB), Matthew Stafford (16th picked QB)

    ADP and Average PPG for RB

    Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliot and Alvin Kamara were universally accepted as the top 4 fantasy RB’s coming into the season and the order in which they were picked was virtually interchangeable. These top 4 RB’s are all having terrific seasons, while CMC (Avg. 2nd pick among all players) is on pace to have the greatest fantasy season of all time. After Dalvin Cook (5th highest selected RB), things become extremely inconsistent and picking among the 6th-15th selected RB’s is a game that relies heavily on luck. RB’s still remain the safest position to pick anytime in your draft as you have the highest chance of finding a diamond in the rough. If you reference the original graph of all positions, you can see that RB is the most valuable position in all leagues. The graph may look inconsistent but most of the top 30 picks average above 14 PPG which is considered pretty terrific for a flex option or RB2.

    Notable Busts: Joe Mixon (11th picked RB), Kerryon Johnson (17th picked RB)

    Notable Breakouts: Christian McCaffrey (2nd picked RB), Austin Ekeler (23rd picked RB)*

    *Currently Chargers backup RB following Melvin Gordon’s return

    ADP and Average PPG for WR

    Wide Receiver is a position with the biggest upside as well as the biggest risk. The WR position has been riddled with injuries (Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, etc.) as well as busts (Juju Smith Schuster and Odell Beckham Jr). However, the WR position is filled with breakout players such as Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin who were both selected somewhere after the 40th pick in most leagues. There is certainly major upside to pick a WR early but it is much safer to go with a RB who can consistently produce.

    Notable Busts: OBJ (6th picked WR), Juju Smith Schuster (7th picked WR)

    Notable Breakouts: Cooper Kupp (13th picked WR), Chris Godwin (15th picked WR)

    ADP and Average PPR for TE

    It has been an incredibly odd season at the TE position this year. Finding a consistently good TE might be the most difficult task in all of fantasy football. Travis Kelce has been consistent, but not incredible by any means. Many top TE’s were early waiver claims throughout the season and didn’t get drafted at all. Mark Andrews and Darren Waller were both primarily waiver pickups and they are among the best TE’s in the league. It is very important to get a top 5 TE as the position has the most significant AVG PPG drop-off after at least the top 8 players.

    Notable Busts: OJ Howard (7th picked TE)

    Notable Breakouts: Austin Hooper (6th picked TE), Darren Waller (9th picked TE)

    Final Analysis

    In almost every position the second highest picked player by position group is outscoring the highest selected player, often by a significant margin. WR is certainly the most inconsistent position group, and it is clear that finding a potential sleeper is very likely as well as risky. Finally, injuries play an important part in these rankings. Many Quarterback’s have been hurt throughout the season thus far and this significantly impacts RB, WR and TE performance. We will update these graphs at the end of the season and go into further detail about what it means, and how you can use it for your draft next year.

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