Taylor Rogers is coming off of a season where he received a lot of hate and criticism. Many are now quick to say that he isn’t good, but that simply isn’t the case. In this article I will explain why Rogers is still really good and doesn’t deserve all the hate.
In 2018-19, Rogers was one of the best relievers in baseball. In those two seasons, he produced a 2.62 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 2.89 xFIP, and a 2.71 SIERA in 137.1 innings pitched. Among qualified relievers during that time, Rogers ranked 16th in ERA, 5th in FIP, 9th in xFIP, and 8th in SIERA. Rogers also had a 10.81 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, 6.11 K/BB, and a 4.0 fWAR. Rogers ranked 28th in K/9, 5th in BB/9, 4th in K/BB, and 4th in fWAR. By looking at these stats, it’s very clear that Taylor Rogers was a top-10 reliever in baseball going into 2020.
In 2020, Rogers regressed a little bit, but it wasn’t as much as you may have thought. His peripherals were a lot better than his ERA suggested. Rogers posted a 4.05 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, and a 3.22 SIERA in 20.0 innings pitched. Among qualified relievers for 2020, Rogers ranked 115th in ERA, 38th in FIP, 27th in xFIP, and 37th in SIERA. Rogers also had a 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 6.00 K/BB, and a 0.5 fWAR. He ranked 59th in K/9, 17th in BB/9, 14th in K/BB, and 30th in fWAR. Obviously this isn’t as good as 2018-19, but it’s still pretty good.
Now when you see all three seasons combined, it’ll be a lot easier to understand why Rogers is still a very good reliever. Since 2018, Rogers has produced a 2.80 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 2.94 xFIP, and a 2.78 SIERA in 157.1 innings pitched. Among qualified relievers, he ranks 22nd in ERA, 6th in FIP, 8th in xFIP, and 10th in SIERA. Looking at some of his other stats, he produced a 10.81 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, 6.10 K/BB, and a 4.5 fWAR. He ranks 35th in K/9, 9th in BB/9, 3rd in K/BB, and 4th in fWAR. Looking at the stats since 2018, it’s clear that Taylor Rogers is at least a borderline top-10 reliever in baseball.
I definitely expect Rogers to bounceback in 2021 and return close to his 2018-19 self who was one of the most dominant closers in baseball.