With the 2022 Major League Baseball season now about a month old, some players have started the year hot, while others have not. As a result, there is no better time to acquire potential league-changing players at their lowest value in fantasy baseball. With that being said here are my best players to buy low on.
Julio Rodriguez (OF)
Coming into 2022 Rodriguez was considered a consensus top prospect in baseball. Even though he’s just 21 years old and never played in AAA, Rodriguez was named to the Mariners’ opening day roster and has been the team’s everyday centerfielder. Rodriguez hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts at the plate as he’s currently hitting .238/.307/.325 (94 wRC+), but he has shown glimpses of his potential. For example, his lone home run so far this season was a 450-foot nuke that was barreled at 110.4 mph. Rodriguez has hit the ball hard as his average exit velocity (90.8 mph) is in the 74th percentile, hard-hit rate (49%) is in the 84 percentile, and max exit velocity (112.9 mph) is in the 93rd percentile. Rodriguez has managed to be an about-league-average hitter despite having a whopping 35.2 K%. As he gets more experience in the Major Leagues, I definitely expect his strikeout rate to come down for multiple reasons but the one with the biggest headline right now is how umpires have been treating him. As seen in the tweet below, Rodriguez has had historically bad luck on called strikeouts.
Rodriguez’s highest K% at any Minor League level was 22.4% which is another reason to expect his current 35.2% to be unsustainable. Even if Rodriguez isn’t able to make a major jump offensively, his speed is second to none. Rodriguez is MLB’s current leader in stolen bases with nine and he has a 99th percentile sprint speed. If Rodriguez’s bat is able to heat up, he could potentially hit 20 homers while stealing at least 30 bases.
Kyle Tucker (OF)
Like he did last year, Kyle Tucker struggled in April. Despite being below the mendoza line for the majority of the month Tucker was able to finish April hitting .224/.277/.408 (102 wRC+). The opportunity to buy Tucker low is quickly diminishing as he’s caught fire the past few days to boost his triple slashline to .262/.308/.440 (121 wRC+). Another reason to be high on Tucker is that he’s been a statcast darling. Tucker’s .348 xBA (99th percentile) is .086 points higher than his BA, .676 xSLG (97th percentile) is .236 points higher than his SLG, and .444 xwOBA (96th percentile) is .116 points higher than his wOBA. As long as Tucker continues hitting the ball like he has to start the season, he should start seeing similar results at the plate to what he produced last season. Additionally, Tucker has really struggled so far against lefties (46 wRC+), but he was great against them last year (144 wRC+) and has been solid against them throughout his Major League career (123 wRC+). Lastly, Tucker has already stolen four bases and if the opportunities are there, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tucker steal 20 bases by the end of the season.
Max Muncy (1B, 2B)
One word to describe Max Muncy’s start to the 2022 season is “bad.” Muncy is currently hitting .136/.313/.273 (84 wRC+). Although there’s not much to like about his results, there’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic Muncy will breakout of his slump. Muncy has had great plate discipline for the last few seasons and that has continued in 2022 as he ranks in the 99th percentile for both BB% and Chase Rate. Additionally, Muncy has a 14.3 Barrel% (86th percentile). Muncy’s elite combination of plate discipline and barrels indicate that he’s seeing the ball well, but the results just haven’t been there. Another reason why I would recommend buying low on Muncy is that he’s in arguably the most stacked lineup in the Majors. Muncy hits in a prime spot to pick up RBIs and pitchers won’t be able to pitch around him because of how good the entire lineup is. And just as a reminder: Muncy has hit 35, 35, and 36 home runs in the last three full seasons.
Luis Robert (OF)
Like Kyle Tucker, Luis Robert has been a statcast darling. Despite this, Robert is only hitting .246/.258/.426 (102 wRC+). Robert’s .358 xBA (99th percentile) is .112 points higher than his BA, .743 xSLG (99th percentile) is .317 points higher than his SLG, and .460 xwOBA (98th percentile) is .158 points higher than his wOBA. The one flaw of Robert’s game is definitely his plate discipline as he has a 2nd percentile BB% and 1st percentile Chase Rate. Even with similarly bad plate discipline in 2021, Robert was able to hit .338/.378/.576 (157 wRC+), so I’m not entirely concerned about it as long as he keeps swinging the bat as well as he has. However if Robert does somehow start taking walks and stops chasing just a little bit, he will be that much more dangerous at the plate. Despite Robert arguably making the best contact at the plate in the Major Leagues, his BABIP is only .245. Once his BABIP stabilizes closer to the league average of about .300, he will be one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball. On top of this, Robert has already swiped five bags and could steal around 20 as long as he stays healthy.
I am a freshman studying broadcast and digital journalism at the Syracuse University Newhouse School of Public Communications and I'm from New York City. @mlbzone_ on Instagram
