Why 2021 Is A Boom Or Bust Year For Vladimir Guerrero Jr

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    Entering the 2019 season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr was rated the #1 overall prospect and given a 70 Future Value (FV) by Fangraphs. Across 183 career games from 2019-2020, Guerrero has not looked anything like a future superstar accumulating only a 0.7 fWAR with slightly above production at the plate to go along with atrocious base running and fielding. So far in 183 career games, Guerrero has a .269/.336/.442 slash line along with a .332 wOBA and 108 wRC+.

    Although Guerrero was given a remarkable 80/80 raw power and 65/70 game power on his 2019 prospects report from Fangraphs, he only has a career .174 ISO and has barely launched the ball. In his two Major League seasons, Guerrero has recorded launch angles of 6.7 degrees (2019) and 4.6 degrees (2020). Although he was in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage in 2020, Guerrero’s xwOBA was only in the 55th percentile which I would mainly attribute to his low launch angle. If Guerrero is able to buy into the launch angle revolution and actually lift the ball on average at least 10 degrees, I strongly believe he could be one of the best offensive players in baseball next season and for years to come. Guerrero clearly has the tools to be one of the best power bats in the league — he just needs to launch the ball.

    If Guerrero isn’t able to take a step forward at the plate in 2021, I think he would start entering the bust conversation. Due to his limitations in the field and on the bases, most of Guerrero’s production will need to be carried by his offense for him to be successful. No matter which corner infield position Guerrero has played, he’s struggled. In 824.1 innings at third base, Guerrero has an atrocious -9 DRS, -9.4 UZR, -14.6 UZR/150, and -16 OAA. In 299.0 innings at first base, Guerrero hasn’t fared much better as he’s recorded -4 DRS, -1.8 UZR, -13.8 UZR/150, and -2 OAA. On the basepaths, Guerrero has an abysmal -7.5 BsR which is good for third worst in baseball since the start of the 2019 season. If Guerrero’s production isn’t carried his offense, his production will most likely be limited which wouldn’t be ideal for Guerrero’s development and a potential Blue Jays Postseason run.


    I am an 11th grader from New York City who enjoys writing about Major League Baseball. @mlbzone_ on Instagram

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    Justin Girshon
    I am an 11th grader from New York City who enjoys writing about Major League Baseball. @mlbzone_ on Instagram


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