The MLB season is finally approaching, so it’s time for player predictions. In the last article we examined what the roster will look like, so now let’s look at how the roster will perform. I kept the stats in the form of a 162-game season for the sake of familiarity, as I’m sure most of us aren’t perfectly aware of what’s good and what’s not in sixty games. I came up with the numbers through in-depth research for each player in an effort to be as realistic as possible, and tried not to let any bias creep in. Last time we started off with position players, so this time we’ll be switching things up a little and kicking it off with arms.
Rotation
RHP Frankie Montas: 188 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 9.22 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 4.0 fWAR
LHP Sean Manaea: 170 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 8.44 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 3.1 fWAR
RHP Mike Fiers: 156 IP, 4.72 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 6.49 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9, 1.2 fWAR
LHP Jesus Luzardo: 165 IP, 3.41 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 10.24 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 3.5 fWAR
LHP A.J. Puk: 130 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 10.61 K/9, 3.88 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 2.8 fWAR
Bullpen
RHP Chris Bassitt: 120 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 8.57 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, 1.6 fWAR
LHP T.J. McFarland: 56 IP, 4.47 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 5.38 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 0.3 fWAR
RHP J.B. Wendelken: 65 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 9.43 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 1.5 fWAR
RHP Lou Trivino: 68 IP, 3.82 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 0.7 fWAR
RHP Yusmeiro Petit: 75 IP, 3.40 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 7.57 K/9, 1.40 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 0.9 fWAR
LHP Jake Diekman: 61 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 11.60 K/9, 5.34 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, 1.1 fWAR
RHP Joakim Soria: 67 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 10.35 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 1.6 fWAR
RHP Liam Hendriks: 73 IP, 2.71 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 12.49 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 2.1 fWAR
A common trend you may notice in these predictions is a slight ERA underperformance of FIP. This is very characteristic of A’s pitchers, as in the last decade our arms averaged an ERA .22 lower than their FIP. It’s hard to pinpoint why exactly this is, but it’s definitely something to note.
Starters
C Sean Murphy: .261/.339/.442, 18 HR, .332 wOBA, 111 wRC+, 5.6 FRAA, 2.7 bWARP (I will use bWARP for catchers because of its use of FRAA, in my opinion the best catching defensive metric).
1B Matt Olson: .272/.364/.557, 43 HR, .380 wOBA, 141 wRC+, 9 OAA, 7.2 UZR, 5.1 fWAR
2B Franklin Barreto: 125 G, .232/.295/.444, 17 HR, .310 wOBA, 97 wRC+, 1 OAA, -0.6 UZR, 1.0 fWAR
3B Matt Chapman: .264/.361/.523, 40 HR, .374 wOBA, 138 wRC+, 18 OAA, 16.0 UZR, 7.2 fWAR
SS Marcus Semien: .274/.357/.488, 27 HR, .359 wOBA, 126 wRC+, -3 OAA, 4.7 UZR, 4.9 fWAR
LF Mark Canha: .244/.358/.462, 23 HR, .348 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 1 OAA, -0.7 UZR, 3.0 fWAR
CF Ramon Laureano: .273/.335/.482, 25 HR, .346 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 1 OAA, 4.0 UZR, 4.3 fWAR
RF Stephen Piscotty: .259/.327/.452, 21 HR, .329 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 1 OAA, -0.6 UZR, 1.7 fWAR
DH: Khris Davis: .247/.322/.479, 34 HR, .334 wOBA, 112 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR
Bench
C Austin Allen: .230/.292/.420, 10 HR, .298 wOBA, 88 wRC+, 3.3 FRAA, 1.3 bWARP
UTL Chad Pinder: .249/.303/.433, 14 HR, .308 wOBA, 96 wRC+, -2 OAA, 0.7 UZR, 1.1 fWAR
OF Robbie Grossman: .257/.353/.374, 9 HR, .317 wOBA, 100 wRC+, 0 OAA, 2.1 UZR, 0.9 fWAR
UTL Tony Kemp: .218/.304/.337, 6 HR, .281 wOBA, 78 wRC+, 7 OAA, 1.4 UZR, 0.2 fWAR
IF Vimael Machin: .260/.362/.359, 5 HR, .322 wOBA, 102 wRC+, -2 OAA, -1.1 UZR, 0.8 fWAR
As I hinted at in the last article, I really like our team going into this year. I think we’re being overlooked (per usual), and are real threats in the American League. We should be getting some bounce-back seasons from several players, and overall across the board we don’t have any clear weaknesses. I’m excited to see our boys back in action and ready to do some damage.
I'm an A's fan, I love stats and baseball in general.
