One of the best parts of creating baseball content is seeing my narratives thrive. This season, something new that I\u2019ll be starting is labeling \u201cmy guys\u201d for the 2023 MLB season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what makes someone \u201cmy guy?\u201d Well, it\u2019s a player I\u2019m confident will have a big season, but he must not have received any major awards in his Major League career. It would be easy to label Shohei Ohtani as \u201cmy guy,\u201d but he\u2019s everyone around the world\u2019s guy, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That said, here are my five \u201cguys\u201d for the 2023 season<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Catcher: Adley Rutschman<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n If you follow me on Twitter or Instagram, you know that I\u2019ve been all over Adley Rutschman this offseason. Heck, I even placed an MVP wager on him. So why am I so confident in Rutschman? <\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s because he does everything you\u2019d possibly want from a catcher and he does it all at an elite level. Even with a struggling first couple of months at the plate after getting called up midseason, Rutschman hit .254\/.362\/.445 (133 wRC+). Among catchers with at least 400 PAs, Rutschman led them all in wRC+ as a rookie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Beyond his performance at the plate, he was elite behind the plate. Rutschman led all catchers in Baseball Savant\u2019s new Blocks Above Average metric while ranking third in FanGraphs\u2019 framing (FRM) metric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Additionally, Rutschman is an outstanding baserunner. Among all players with at least 400 PAs in 2022, Rutschman\u2019s 5.0 BsR ranked in the 91st percentile and led and ranked second among catchers behind JT Realmuto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Had Rutschman played in 150 games last season, he was on pace for 7.0 fWAR. As a rookie. In 2023, I think Rutschman has a great chance of surpassing that number, and even approaching double digits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Additionally, with the new rule changes, Rutschman has a chance to show out even more. At the plate, Rutschman was shifted in 80.3% of his plate appearances last season. Now, with shifts restricted, look out for Rutschman to spray the ball all over the field. With the new pick-off rules, Rutschman will have a chance to steal even more bases and show more value behind the plate by throwing runners out and limiting the run game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Bobby Witt Jr. had an intriguing rookie season in 2022. On the surface, Witt had an impressive season with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, he struggled with his plate discipline and consistently hitting the ball hard which led to a below average offensive season (99 wRC+). Witt certainly had his ups and downs, but I believe he\u2019s one of those players that will be a big beneficiary of having a year of experience behind him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For example, Vladimir Guerrero struggled through his first 180 Major League games, but his talent came through in 2021 leading to an MVP-caliber season. I don\u2019t think something like this is out of the question for Witt in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although he struggled consistently hitting the ball hard and barreling the ball, Witt has some of the best raw power in MLB; his 113.7 Max EV ranked in the 93rd percentile. And even with his inconsistency, Witt still hit 20 homers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What will help take Witt to the next level is improving his plate discipline. Across 744 Minor League plate appearances, Witt had an 8.6 BB%, but he only walked at a 4.7% clip last season. If Witt can improve his plate discipline even 20 points above his .294 clip from 2022, it would do wonders for him in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2023, with a year of experience behind him, I think Witt could easily be a 120-130 wRC+ player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Additionally, what I think takes Witt to the next level is his base running and he should be a huge beneficiary of the rule changes. With his 100th percentile sprint speed, I don\u2019t think it would be entirely shocking to see Witt steal 50 bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The biggest if, however, is if Witt can be a competent defensive shortstop. Last season, Witt accumulated -11 OAA which ranked in the first percentile. If he can become closer to league average defensively, I think Witt can be a 5-6 WAR player in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Nick Lodolo had a bumpy rookie season filled with ups and downs, but overall, he had a productive season. Across 103.1 innings pitched, Lodolo finished with a 3.66 ERA leading to a sixth-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What stood out most to me about Lodolo\u2019s rookie season was his ability to miss bats and his raw stuff. Lodolo\u2019s 29.1 K%, 29.8 CSW%, 30.2 Whiff% and 106 Stuff+ (Eno Sarris model) were all above average, which was a major part of his success. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Additionally, when batters did make contact against him, Lodolo did a good job of assuring that balls would be hit into the ground accumulating an above average 46.0 GB%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the biggest problem Lodolo had was his command. Lodolo\u2019s 8.8 BB% ranked in the 36th percentile and his 9.1 Barrel% ranked in the 18th percentile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At times, Lodolo had tendencies to either completely miss the strike zone or leave pitches too far into the strike zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 8.3% of Lodolo\u2019s pitches last season were labeled as \u201cmeatballs,\u201d which is exactly what it sounds like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lodolo showed flashes of dominance in 2022, but if he cleans up his command, he could become one of the best pitchers in the National League. I\u2019m a big believer that this will happen as long as Lodolo can stay healthy \u2013 unlike his rookie season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n