Another way that shows that he’s overrated is his stats. Everyone claims that he’s some sort of All-Star outfielder, but his stats suggest that he’s not. In 2019, he slashed .276/.300/.500 (.800 OPS), with a .329 wOBA, 103 wRC+, and a .273 BABIP. He hit 28 doubles, 1 triple, and 32 home runs, while driving in 109 runs in 137 games. His Statcast stats weren’t that good, but better than his stats from before. 8.5 Barrel%, .269 xBA, .501 xSLG, .330 xwOBA, .374 xwOBACON, 36.0 Hard Hit %, 14.6 K%, and a 3.7 BB%. Defense was a huge problem for Rosario in 2019. In 1,146.0 innings split between all three outfield positions, he recorded a -8 DRS, -5.6 UZR, -6.7 UZR/150, and a terrible -17 OAA. His total fWAR on the season was 1.2, which is below average.

His career numbers aren’t much better. Since his debut in 2015, he’s slashed .279/.309/.479 (.788 OPS), with a .330 wOBA, 105 wRC+, and a .310 BABIP. He’s hit 127 doubles, 22 triples, and 106 home runs, while driving in 346 runs in 640 games. His career Statcast stats are slightly worse than the career stats from above. 7.3 Barrel%, .252 xBA, .442 xSLG, .307 xwOBA, .366 xwOBACON, 33.1 Hard Hit %, 19.4 K%, and a 4.4 BB%. His career defensive stats are much better than his 2019 defensive stats. In 5,276.0 split between all three outfield positions, he recorded a 1 DRS, 6.9 UZR, 1.4 UZR/150, and a -4.5 OAA.

Those numbers aren’t very good by any means. They’re serviceable, but not amazing like everyone makes him seem. .750 OPS or more is considered above average. .325 wOBA is considered average. 100 wRC+ is considered average. For all defensive categories, 0 is considered average.

So now that you’ve seen the stats and know how much he’s referred to as good, you can see that he’s overrated and average to barely above average at best. The best decision in my opinion would be to trade him, especially with top outfield prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach about ready to make their transition to the MLB sometime within the next 1-2 years, depending on what happens with this COVID-19 situation.

At the time, it was terrible because three of everyone’s favorite players were traded for mostly prospects. Now, looking back, we can say it wasn’t as bad as we thought. We received prospects Devin Smeltzer and Luke Raley, along with Logan Forsythe from the Dodgers for Brian Dozier. We received Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino from the Astros for Ryan Pressly. We received Jhoan Duran, Gabriel Maciel, and Ernie De La Trinidad from the Diamondbacks for Eduardo Escobar. We received Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello from the Mariners for Zach Duke. We received Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo from the Yankees for Lance Lynn. The final trade the Twins made was Fernando Rodney to the Athletics in exchange for Dakota Chalmers.

Devin Smeltzer (MLB) did great for the Twins minor league teams, and eventually got the call and came up to the Twins and did good in the MLB too. Luke Raley (Dodgers AAA) hasn’t reached the MLB yet, but he is expected to in 2020. Raley had done great in the Twins minor league system before being traded back to the Dodgers as part of the Kenta Maeda trade.

Jorge Alcala (MLB) did good in the minor leagues since being traded, and even earned himself a promotion to the MLB, where he debuted and did good in his limited appearances. Gilberto Celestino (Adv. A/40-man) has also done good in the minor leagues since being traded, and earned himself protection from the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings next month.

Jhoan Duran (AA/40-man) is a very promising prospect who came into the Twins minor league system and dominated. He’s done great ever since the trade and was added to the 40-man roster. Gabriel Maciel (Adv. A) was traded to the Twins and has done average for the Kernels and Miracle.

Luis Rijo (A) was traded to the Twins and his effects were felt immediately. He started dominating in the minor leagues and has continued to do so a year later.

Dakota Chalmers (Adv. A/40-man) was acquired by the Twins in the trade that sent Fernando Rodney to the Athletics. Since being acquired by the Twins, Chalmers has done good and was well worth the trade for Rodney.

Could we see the Twins in the World Series?

It’s very possible with this team. This is one, if not the most talented team in Twins history. The window opened in 2019 and the Twins won 101 games, set a home run record, and won the division. This team is much more talented than last year’s. The only team that stands in the way is the Yankees.

Who do you see being a surprise player to make the Opening Day roster?

I think Nick Gordon is a potential surprise player we could see on the Opening Day roster. Maybe a pitcher like Jorge Alcala too. Both have done well in Triple-A. Alcala has made his MLB debut and has done pretty good in his limited innings. Nick Gordon has yet to make his MLB debut but he will very likely debut sometime in 2020.

Thoughts on our current rotation?

Trading for Kenta Maeda helped us a ton at the position we needed the most help. Berrios, Maeda, and Odorizzi is a very solid 1-2-3. The back end of the rotation by mid-June will be two of Homer Bailey, Rich Hill, Michael Pineda, or Lewis Thorpe, all of which are good options for four and five starters. This rotation is good enough so that it should be able to work with our offense to help win us games.

How much will Marwin Gonzalez play with the addition of Josh Donaldson?

The great part about Marwin Gonzalez is that he’s very versatile. He can play everywhere. I think he’ll still get his fair share of playing time because of his versatility and his defense being so good everywhere. His offense isn’t anything to worry about either. With most of our infield playing many games in a season, it’s likely that Gonzalez will be seeing more time in the outfield rather than the infield.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason?

I think this offseason has been great, and probably the best in Twins history. We addressed all of our needs with good players like Josh Donaldson and Kenta Maeda, as well as some other players who could make an impact. Overall, I’d say it was an A because of the fact we addressed all of our needs. Maybe if we had gotten one of Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, or Hyun-Jin Ryu it would be an A+, but this offseason was still really good.

How will the Twins do in 2020 with all their new players?

I think the Twins will improve on their amazing 2020 season. I think they’ll finish with 101-104 wins and come close to their home run record set in 2019. As for the pitchers, I think Kenta Maeda will rebound and have a decent season. I also think Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda will combine to be a dominant big three.

Who will be the fifth starter?

There are 4 players in contention for the fifth rotation spot. Jhoulys Chacin, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smetlzer, and Randy Dobnak. I think it will eventually come down to a competition between Chacin and Thorpe. Of those two, it will likely depend on how they do during Spring Training. I think the Twins could choose to have Thorpe in the rotation because he has been a prospect for a while, and has already proven to be successful at the MLB level.

Who will take the last two spots in the bullpen?

With the Graterol trade, it opens up another spot in the bullpen. Some options are Wisler, Alcala, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Chacin, or very unlikely but maybe even Jake Reed. I think it will be Wisler and Alcala because they’re both young and have shown success at high levels before.

That wraps it up for this week. Check my Instagram story soon for opportunities to give questions for me to possibly answer next week.

The Trade:

Twins Receive: RHP Kenta Maeda, C Jair Camargo, $10 million,

Dodgers Receive: RHP Brusdar Graterol, OF Luke Raley, 67th overall pick in the 2020 draft

Obviously losing Graterol sucks. He’s a very promising pitching prospect and is on the track to becoming an elite reliever if he stays a reliever. If he stays a reliever, like it seemed the Twins wanted, his value isn’t as much as if he were a starter. Losing Raley and the 67th pick isn’t ideal, but it’s not going to affect much. Raley has no room to play in the Twins outfield with Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, and probably Cave. It also doesn’t help Raley by the Twins having really good prospects coming up like Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker being almost ready.

Maeda is entering his age-32 season and has been a good starter his whole career. He has 4 years left on his 8 year/$25M deal he signed when he came to the MLB from Japan. He earns $3M each year with a $150K bonus for making the Opening Day roster. He earns $1M each for 15 and 20 starts, $1.5M each for 25, 30, and 32 starts, $250K for every 10 innings pitches between 90 and 190 innings pitched, and $750K for 200 innings pitched.

Maeda had a decent 2019 season. He posted a 4.04 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 4.06 SIERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.90 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9, 3.31 K/BB, .200 BAA, 169 strikeouts, 51 walks, and a 2.5 fWAR in 153.2 innings pitched (26 starts, 11 relief appearances). Maeda throws 5 pitches and how much of the time he threw each in 2019: Four-Seam Fastball (33.7%), Slider (31.5%), Changeup (23.7%), Curveball (7.4%), and a Sinker (3.7%). Maeda is very similar to Twins All-Star pitcher Jake Odorizzi, which is a great thing. Here’s how Maeda did in 2019, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

The Twins also received catching prospect Jair Camargo in the deal. The 20-year old Colombian has been assigned to the Cedar Rapids Kernels, the Single-A affiliate of the Twins. Camargo spent all of his 2019 season with the Great Lakes Loons, the Single-A affiliate of the Dodgers. He slashed .236/.301/.342 (.643 OPS), with 4 home runs, 18 doubles, and 41 RBI. He also produced a .302 wOBA, 88 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, and a 28.8% K% in 316 plate appearances (79 games). Defensively, he made 10 errors and allowed 12 passed balls. He also had a decent 34% CS%.

Overall, I think this was a great trade for the Twins. They had to give up a very promising reliever, a pick in the 2020 Competitive Balance Round B, and a decent outfield prospect, but the return was great. They got a good starting pitcher and addressed a huge need at that position. Camargo could certainly be an interesting prospect to keep an eye on for the future too. $10 million is also great to help with Maeda’s contract. Sad to see Graterol go, but the future in Minnesota has never been brighter. The Twins will be looking to bring home their third World Series championship since moving to Minnesota in 1961, and their first championship since 1991.

Twins win the American League Central again

This one isn’t really THAT bold. The Twins are by far the most talented team in the division. They shouldn’t have much competition for the division title. The most competition in the division will be between the Indians and the White Sox for second place.

Twins win their third World Series

I know what you’re thinking. We have to win a playoff game first. You’re right, we do, but I think it’s possible for the Twins to pull off a World Series win. We’ve added some good players to the team like Josh Donaldson, Kenta Maeda (maybe), Rich Hill, and Alex Avila. The Twins lineup is very good, possibly even the best in the league. There’s no reason the Twins aren’t World Series contenders in 2020.

Luis Arraez wins the batting title

Luis Arraez is an insanely good contact hitter. He hit .334 in 2019 in 92 games. Other managers have said that he has the potential to win a batting title, and I agree.

Byron Buxton plays a full season

Byron Buxton’s career-high in games played is 140, set in 2017. Buxton’s best season was in 2019, where he slashed .262/.314/.513 (.827 OPS), with 10 home runs, 30 doubles, and 4 triples. I think Buxton will come back to have the best season of his career, and he will be the starting center fielder for most of 2020.

Jose Berrios is a Cy Young candidate

Jose Berrios was a dark horse Cy Young candidate in the first half of his All-Star 2019 campaign and has shown signs of being the elite pitcher he can be. He’s been getting better every year since he’s debuted, and I think his 2020 season will be his best yet.

Catcher: Mitch Garver, Alex Avila

First Base: Miguel Sano

Second Base: Luis Arraez

Shortstop: Jorge Polanco

Third Base: Josh Donaldson

Outfield: Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jake Cave

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz

Utility: Ehire Adrianza, Marwin Gonzalez

The position players are pretty straight forward and there shouldn’t be much debate for who should play where. Pitching is a more debatable topic.

Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer

Relief Pitchers: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo, Zack Littell, Brusdar Graterol, Matt Wisler

I don’t think there should be much discrepancy in the pitching department, however a small amount is likely. My picks and predictions are based off of who I think is the best option and who will do the best for the Twins in 2020.

Donaldson is entering his age-34 season, but shows no signs of slowing down. Steamer projections predict Donaldson to slightly improve from his great 2019 season with the Atlanta Braves. They project he will slash .267/.379/.527 (.906 OPS) while hitting 36 home runs with 103 RBI. Some other numbers they project are a .378 wOBA, 137 wRC+, 14.5 BB%, 23.4% K%, and a 5.3 fWAR in 147 games.

Projections are always just a guess based on some previous information, although that doesn’t mean they can’t be accurate. Donaldson had great numbers in 2019, slashing .259/.379/.521 (.900 OPS) with 37 home runs and 94 RBI. He also produced a .377 wOBA and a 132 wRC+. He walked 15.2% of the time and struck out 23.5% of the time while producing a 4.9 fWAR. Defensively, Donaldson is also very good. He produced a 15 DRS, 2.4 UZR, 2.1 UZR/150, and 8 OAA in 1,297.0 innings at third base for the Braves.

Donaldson will take over the third base position for the Twins, while Miguel Sano slides across the diamond to become the team’s primary first baseman. Sano’s defense at first base is significantly better than it is at third base, so the move makes all the sense. He posted a -1 DRS, -0.1 UZR, -1.1 UZR/150, and -1 OAA in 66.0 innings at first base compared to a -5 DRS, -6.7 UZR, -19.9 UZR/150, and -3 OAA in 793.0 innings at third base in 2019.

This is a franchise-changing signing for the Twins. It’s the biggest free agent signing the Twins have ever made and one of the biggest contracts the Twins have ever given to anyone. This is a really good signing and makes the Twins one of, if not the best offense in all of Major League Baseball.

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