Team’s Success : Offense and Bullpen

The Braves are an offense heavy team, and it is no surprise that the team is top 10 in the MLB in majority team batting stats. The Braves sport a .259 team AVG (9th MLB, 5th NL), .325 OBP (15th MLB, 10th NL), .453 SLG (5th MLB, 3rd NL), .778 OPS (7th MLB, 5th NL), 152 Runs Scored (9th MLB, 5th NL), 5.07 Runs per Game (T-9th MLB, 5th NL), and 42 Homeruns (T-9th MLB, T-3rd NL). The team clearly has an offense, and it shows in the box scores. The offense is led by 5 key players: Ronald Acuña Jr, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, and Travis d’Arnaud. All of those players sport an OPS north of .900 (asides from Dansby who holds an .856 OPS) and combine for an average wRC+ of 145 (45% better than league average) Acuña, Ozuna and d’Arnaud all have a 0.7 WAR as of today, which is a 60 game equivalent of 1.4, which is a 162 game equivalent of 3.8. Freeman and Swanson hold a 1 WAR, which is a 60 game equivalent of 2, and a 162 game equivalent of 5.4. Sorry to throw a lot of stats in your face, but those are mighty impressive numbers, and those players are the main reason we are a top offense in baseball, and one of this team’s key strengths. Along with the offense, the bullpen has looked amazing this season, showing a 10-3 record, led by break through youngster AJ Minter, closer Mark Melancon, and many key veterans including Shane Greene, Chris Martin, Will Smith, and Darren O’Day. Luke Jackson hasn’t done great for the pen, but not much was expected of him. Tyler Matzek is a surprise stud in the pen, allowing 6 earned over 13 innings, 4.5 K/BB, and 0 HR or HBP. Josh Tomlin and Huascar Ynoa showed some great outings in the pen too, but Tomlin has now taken on a starting role, and so has Ynoa. The bullpen as a whole boasted a 2.27 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9. The bullpen last season was a huge question mark, and now has proven it is one of the best in baseball. Side note: 7 of the 11 relievers are aged 30 or older, just thought I would throw that out there. Now that I have covered this team’s strengths, let’s cover the weaknesses.

Team’s Weakness : Starting Rotation

The Braves have a problem that can be recognized by any baseball fan. The starting rotation is just pure garbage. Max Fried has carried the rotation, and it hasn’t gone unnoticed. He has a 2.5 WAR, highest in the MLB, and has many people’s Cy Young votes. Mike Soroka was doing similar before he tore his achilles, which left a HUGE gap in our rotation. Fried has a 5-0 record, 1.35 ERA, 2.31 FIP, .257 BABIP and a 0.95 WHIP. In short, he has been an elite, Cy Young type pitcher. After that though it gets rough. The Braves have tried out 8 different starters, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, Robbie Eflin, Huascar Ynoa, Josh Tomlin, Ian Anderson, Mike Foltynewicz, and Sean Newcomb. Excluding Ian Anderson, who had an amazing debut yesterday, the rotation without Fried sports a 7.68 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 9 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, and a 2.65 HR/9. The rotation struggled horribly at the start of the season, but with the current rotation of Fried, Erlin, Tomlin, Anderson, and whoever else will fill in the role, the rotation is nowhere near as bad as it was with Newcomb, Foltynewicz, Toussaint and Wright. The rotation may be ok for now, but it is clear they need to trade for a starter or two before the deadline. This team at midseason looks like another division winner, but when it comes to postseason where pitching wins, it looks like we will once again be first round exits. Hopefully that can change soon though, for the sake of my sanity, and for the sanity of Braves Country.

Breakout Player #1 (@mlbthrone): OF Willie Calhoun, TEX

This first pick of mine may come as a surprise to many as Calhoun isn’t a big name to the majority of Major League Baseball fans. If we take a look at the standard stats, Calhoun finished with a decent slash line of .269 AVG, .323 OBP, .524 SLG, and a .848 OPS. This doesn’t look like a fantastic year to many so that poses the question: why did I pick him? Well, Calhoun put up 21 HRs and a .848 OPS in only 83 games. Considering that the 2020 MLB season will only be 60 games, those stats line up very well. It’s also worth mentioning that Calhoun did outperform his expected stats by a fairly large margin indicating there could be regression coming. But, this doesn’t take away from the fact that Calhoun would have put up crazy numbers in 2019 if the season was shortened to 60 games. 

Breakout Player #2 (@mlbthrone):  SP Mitch Keller, PIT

My last pick is another unpopular name, which makes a breakout player a breakout player right? Anyway, Mitch Keller’s stats in 2019 on paper look horrendous as he posted a horrific 7.13 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 48 IP. If you look at the advanced stats though, Keller shines in the majority. He posted a 3.19 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 4.38 xERA, 12.19 K/9, 1.13 HR/9, and a 3.78 SIERA. Once you look deeper into Keller’s 2019, you c

an see that he got extremely unlucky. His 3.19 FIP was 14th in the entire MLB which is very promising for the young right hander. Keller also ranked 6th in strikeout rate ahead of all-star pitchers like Justin Verlander and Mike Clevinger. The main reason Keller is on here is because of how unlucky he got in 2019 when he only pitched 48 innings. If you take into account his expected stats in the amount of innings he pitched,Keller will have a very stellar 2020 campaign with the 60 game season.

Breakout candidate #3 (@mlbzone_): 1B Christian Walker, ARI 

After the Arizona Diamondbacks traded their former face of the franchise first basemen, Paul Goldschmidt, during the 2018-2019 offseason to the Saint Louis Cardinals, Christian Walker took over as the everyday first basemen in 2019. Walker made the best of his new role as he had a .346 wOBA, 112 wRC+, 112 DRC+ along with a .259/.348/.476 slash line over 152 games. On top of being a decent hitter, Walker showed he’s an outstanding defender as seen by his 9 OAA, 11 DRS, and 2.0 UZR. Although it may seem as Walker has already broken out, he underperformed his expected statistics which leads me to believe he could become an even better hitter in 2020. Walker’s xBA-AVG was .001, his xSLG-SLG was .037 and his xwOBA-wOBA was .014. Another reason I believe Walker could breakout is because he had very good batted ball data. In 2019, Walker’s exit velo was in the 84th percentile, barrel% was in the 90th percentile, and hard hit% was in the 96th percentile. 

Breakout candidate #4 (zone): SS Dansby Swanson, ATL:

Dansby Swanson was the first overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft but he’s yet to establish himself as an all star caliber player. Although Swanson has yet to live up to his hype, he made a significant offensive jump from 2018 to 2019. In 2018, Swanson had a .238/.304/.395 slash compared to a .251/.325/.422 slash in 2019. Swanson’s advanced stats also improved as seen by a .021 point increase in wOBA, 12 point increase in wRC+, 6 point increase in DRC+, a .038 point increase in xBA, a .117 increase in xSLG, and a .065 point increase in xwOBA. Similar to Christian Walker, Swanson underperformed his expected statistics which leads me to believe he could become an even better hitter in 2020. Swanson’s xBA-AVG was .018, his xSLG-SLG was .055 and his xwOBA-wOBA was .028. One final reason I believe Swanson will breakout is because he’s already a good defensive shortstop. Over the past two years combined, Swanson has 12 DRS, a -1.1 UZR, and 4 OAA. Swanson is relatively established as a defender and I believe he will be a breakout hitter; because of this, Swanson will start to gain recognition as one of the better shortstops in all of baseball.

Yasiel Puig has been on a steady decline these past couple seasons, but he still has been an above average league hitter. Here are stats from his past 3 seasons (2017/2018/2019)

AVG .263/.267/.267

OBP .346/.327/.327

SLG .487/.494/.438

OPS .833/.820/.785

wRC+ 117/123/101

wOBA .349/.349/.330

DRS 14/1/0

UZR 11.8/-3.6/-0.7

fWAR 2.9/1.8/1.2

Puig certainly has made a name for himself in his 6 year MLB career, but he is not the same superstar he was hyped to be back in 2013. Of course with bringing him to the team we must compare his stats to our current outfielders.

Puig has much better batting stats than current CF Ender Inciarte, but does not have anywhere near the defensive statistics as Inciarte. These stats tell us Ender will certainly stay in the lineup due to his defensive capabilities and consistency. Puig has about the same numbers as Marcell Ozuna, who hasn’t found much success in his tenure as a St. Louis Cardinal. Ozuna has better batting stats by a little bit than Puig. Not only does Ozuna edge him out offensively, he also has better defensive statistics. I didn’t think I needed to make this comparison, but yes Ronald Acuña Jr is better than Puig both offensively and defensively. So now that we have established that Puig isn’t better defensively than the other 3 outfielders, that means he could DH right? Well, Adam Duvall stands one the way. Unlike Puig, when Duvall joined Atlanta he has been on a steady increase statistically, earning a .267/.315/.567 triple slash with an .882 OPS. Not to mention a nice .300 ISO. Duvall has a better wOBA in his 2019 season than Puig had from 2017-2019, and a better wRC+ than Puig’s 2017 and 2019. So now we have established that Duvall is better on the offensive side of the game, which means Puig more than likely won’t win the DH spot either. Based off stats, it looks like the outfield will be Duvall in LF, Inciarte in CF, Acuña Jr. in RF, with Ozuna as DH, leaving Puig on the bench in a platoon roll to play on regular starter’s off days, or if anybody in the OF/DH goes cold.

To Sum It All Up the Yasiel Puig signing may have seemed like a move to create a feeling of fulfilling the outfield’s missing pieces, but after a little bit of statistical diving seems to be a move to get a platoon man only there for depth and as a bench bat.

2019

2019… the year of hope and pride for the Atlanta Braves that started off with a slow March/April and then slowly found their groove in May. The Braves didn’t seem like division favorites until June 12. June 12th as many Braves fans remember was the day the Braves defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates in an extra innings battle, and eventually prevailed with a walkoff RBI triple from Ozzie Albies. This day would spark another engine the Braves didn’t know they had, as they went on to win 97 games. Two nights after the miraculous win, the Braves completed a huge comeback against the Philadelphia Phillies, ending with a Brian McCann bloop single. All this was great, but what was even greater was the incredible streak of dominant games by Braves young 3B talent, Austin Riley. Riley had an incredible start, hitting a home run in his Major League debut, and was a key contributor in Atlanta’s late May success. He was still hitting incredibly well going into June, and was super productive during the Pirates and Phillies series that is featured above. But as time went on an increasing number of people scouted Austin, and found out the low slider is essentially impossible for him to lay off. So what did pitchers do? They threw the low slider. Over and over again, haunted by strikeouts, Riley found himself on the bench more often, and a pinch hitter for the rest of the year. Johan Camargo, however, did not have the same story. Camargo made his Major League debut for the Braves in 2017. 2017 was a forgettable year in terms of stats for Johan. 2018 he was productive, and showed promise, as he could flash the leather at third base, and he was getting consistent hits. Camargo in 2019 however did not look like his 2018 self. In 2019 Camargo was not better than Riley in Slash Line, RBI, HR, wRC+, xwOBA, WAR, UZR, or DRS. Camargo although ended up riding the bench the majority of the time with Riley. Johan Camargo is a good ballplayer, and he has shown he can be productive with playing time. But if you have him stuck on the bench, he will not be as productive. So for 2019, you could say Riley wins this case, but we should evaluate their adjustments for 2020, and how they performed in Spring Training.

2020 Spring Training

In 2020 Spring Training, the Braves were welcomed into a brand new facility in North Port, FL. This is the perfect time for Camargo and Riley to battle for the spot, and both players showed significant improvements from 2019. Let’s start with Austin Riley : Riley came into Spring Training after spending the majority of the offseason learning to read breaking pitches below the zone, and it showed that it paid off, as Riley absolutely raked in Spring Training, with a >.340 AVG, and a >1.000 OPS. He showed his bat was worth putting in the starting lineup. I also thought I should point out Riley hit a homerun that I would assume went 480+ feet in Spring Training. He has raw power and if he can keep it up after the quarantine, he should have a legit shot at the starting spot. Not all things are that easy though, as Camargo made huge improvements as well. Camargo came out of the 2019 season at 215 pounds. He put in loads of work to slim down his body, and become faster, and stronger. By Spring Training, he weighed 197 lbs. and hit plenty of long bombs as well. Also with great stats in Spring Training, he made sure his name will be in the conversation for starting 3B. There is one last thing I must mention before I let you come to a decision.

History

The battle for the 3B job should be evaluated by prior numbers and proven adjustments to weaknesses. Camargo, as we pointed out earlier, had an average rookie campaign in 2017, but was a surprise tool at 3B in 2018. He hit for contact but could hit one deep at all times. He flashed the leather as third as well. He put simply had a good year. When he was riding the bench in 2019 he wasn’t having those kinds of performances though. When he returned from an injury in September he was showing his 2018 self was not a fluke, until an unfortunate injury took him out of play for the rest of the season. Riley was an everyday LF that could play 3B when Donaldson needed rest. He was an everyday player from his debut until he slumped for a few weeks, and manager Brian Snitker decided to take him out and insert Joyce/Markakis.

Conclusion

We have discussed everything there is to discuss about Austin Riley and Johan Camargo. While you at home, or work, or the gym, or wherever you are, you may already have your mind made up, my question to you is, who deserves to have the 3B spot for the Atlanta Braves? To me, Camargo should get the start at the spot, but I do suggest this : Riley has a good glove in the outfield too. With a huge question mark in RF for the Braves, there are players to fill that role such as Nick Markakis, Adam Duvall, Charlie Culberson, and Rafael Ortega. What I would like to see is Riley inserted into RF, and set the lineup something like this : Acuña Jr (CF), Albies (2B), Freeman (1B), Ozuna (LF), Riley (RF), Camargo (3B), Swanson (SS), d’Arnaud (C), Pitcher. This is my opinion on the Atlanta Braves’ 3B Spot, and I would live to hear your opinion – TC

A: There has definitely been some uncertainty to the Braves’ 5th rotation spot all offseason. There could potentially be 4 or 5 answers to that last rotation spot. And with the Hamels setback, it doesn’t make anything easier.

Hamels is expected to miss the first week or two of the season and until then, the Braves are currently left with just three locks into the rotation for the Opening Day roster. These guys being Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Mike Foltynewicz. There are two spots open that could potentially be filled by two out of these five pitchers – Felix Hernandez, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Touki Toussaint. All of these guys are qualified for the rotation, but will ultimately depend on how Spring Training goes.

Q: Who will fill the void at 3B?

A: Again, this one will likely be determined by how Spring Training goes. As of right now, it will probably be Johan Camargo manning the left side of the infield along with Dansby Swanson. But if Austin Riley hits .450 in Spring Training with 8 homers, then you’ll almost definitely be seeing him out there at 3rd base. Both of these guys are said to have gotten in way better shape and improved their games massively over the offseason. Camargo has lost over 10 lbs. and Riley has changed his swing to adjust to a Major League offspeed pitch when needed.

There is still a possibility that the Braves still make a move for a star third baseman such as Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado, but with Spring Training already up and running, it seems very doubtful that would happen. I am definitely one to believe that the Braves can be perfectly fine with a Riley/Camargo platoon for the 2020 season.

Q: Do you think Acuna will go 40/40?

A: When Ronald Acuna arrived at Spring Training, it was quoted from Ozzie Albies that Acuna is looking toward a 50/50 season. The 50s symbolizing homers and stolen bases. Acuna is a generational talent who we will be seeing as a top superstar in the sport for many years to come. Acuna came so close to the 40/40 in 2019 but fell short by 3 stolen bases with a small injury late into the season. 50/50 seems like a big longshot but 40/40 definitely seems achievable.

Q: Where do you see the Braves finishing in the NL East standings for 2020?

A: The Braves lost a key player during the 2019-20 offseason. Josh Donaldson signed with the Minnesota Twins in January on a 4 year $92M deal. However, don’t make the mistake to think the Braves only got worse in the offseason because they did anything but that. You can argue that the biggest problem in 2019 was the Atlanta bullpen. And I would agree with that statement. The Braves have solved those issues by bringing in guys like Darren O’Day, Chris Rusin, Chris Martin, Shane Green, Mark Melancon, Josh Tomlin, and Will Smith. Those bullpen issues, you can pretty much say goodbye to.

The Atlanta Braves also added much depth with the position players. They have signed players such as Travis D’Arnaud and Marcell Ozuna. D’Arnaud will play the role of starting catcher and Ozuna will be the everyday left fielder and likely will hit 4th in the lineup. They also added/retained some under the radar players such as Yangervis Solarte, Yonder Alonso, Adeiny Hechavarria, Charlie Culberson, Rafael Ortega, Tyler Flowers, and Nick Markakis. Hechavarria is a very interesting player here as he was very good with the Braves in 2019 when they signed him down the stretch. In 24 games, he hit .328/.400/.639 with 4 homers and a 1.039 OPS.

One of the biggest things the Braves addressed was the rotation, letting Julio Teheran and Dallas Keuchel walk and picking up players such as Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez. With the Cubs in 2019, Hamels went 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 143 strikeouts over 141.2 IP. Felix Hernandez had well.. a horrible year last year with the Mariners. However, I strongly believe he could turn his career around and get back to the pitcher he once was. The 5th spot is still up for grabs, whether a prospect can claim that spot or a veteren like Felix Hernandez.

Because of these reasons, I firmly believe that the Braves are going to win the division for the 3rd straight year. However, the Mets, Nats, and Phillies have all had successful offseasons and will give the Braves a run for their money down the stretch.

Ronald Acuna Jr. flirts with 40/40 again.

Have we even seen the peak of Acuna yet? This guy is great. He has every tool necessary to be a great baseball player. And he proved it last year. If he improves even a little, he will be in the MVP conversation.

Max Fried establishes himself as the ace.

Max Fried started out his 2019 season electrically. In April of 2019, Fried posted a 2.43 ERA over 29.2 IP. He slowly faded away over the next couple of months up until the All Star Break. But after he All Star break he went right back at it, posting a 3.63 ERA in the 2nd half. He has ace-like stuff and will prove it in 2020.

Will Smith will take over the Closer Role by June.

The Braves signed Will Smith to a three year deal to open up Free Agency on November 14th. Most Braves fans automatically assumed he would be the primary closer until the team came out and said they were still planning to have Melancon close the games. Smith racked up 34 saves last year for the San Francisco Giants with just 4 blown saves along with a 2.76 ERA. This prediction is probably the least bold out of all of these. 

The Braves make a move at the deadline.

Here I have the Atlanta Braves bolstering the rotation towards the middle of the season at the trade deadline. I’m talking about Charlie Morton. The Rays will realize by August that they don’t have what it takes to take down the Yankees and they will trade off Morton who is signed with them only for the 2020 season. Morton was great for the Rays i 2019, finishing 3rd in AL Cy Young votings, trailing just Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. In 2019, Morton posted a 3.05 ERA with a 2.81 FIP over 194.2 IP. Charlie Morton would almost certainly improve this Braves rotation.

Braves win the East for a 3rd straight season.

The Braves have not been the favorites to win the division the past two seasons. But they did. It’ll be interesting to see how they will do in 2020 because everyone believes they have the division on lock. Atlanta had a very productive offseason, signing LHP Will Smith, C Travis D’Arnaud, LHP Cole Hamels, and LF Marcell Ozuna while re-signing RHP Chris Martin, OF Nick Markakis, and C Tyler Flowers. But they let Josh Donaldson walk which may hurt the team going forward. There is no doubt that the Braves improved their roster all around this offseason, but having Josh would have been great.

Marcell Ozuna returns to the 2017 version.

Now this one is probably the least likely on this list. Ozuna signed with the Braves on January 21st of this year to a one year deal worth $18M. Ozuna is trying to build stock in 2020 and go for an expensive multi-year deal next offseason. Which means he wants to be really good and that’s why I have this as one of my predictions. Last year, Ozuna slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 homers, 23 doubles, and a 2.6 WAR. I definitely wouldn’t put it past him to play at a superstar level in 2020. 

Freddie Freeman has career year.

Freeman has established himself as the best 1st basemen in the MLB and it’s hard to debate against that. Freeman has won gold gloves and silver sluggers and had his best season last year. And he’s been playing through injury throughout the last few seasons. It started to get really bad at the worst time last year right when the playoffs were starting. And he struggled badly and fans were furious. Freeman had surgery at the beginning of the offseason and he said that it helped a lot, “First time in nine years I haven’t had pain in the offseason. … Everything is good. I feel great. I’m ready to go.” The scary part for pitchers is that they’re going to be facing a mad Freddie Freeman with a chip on his shoulder.