La Stella has been off to a productive start at the plate in 2020 slashing .277/.368/.447 with a .354 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, and 126 wRC+ across 44 games. La Stella hasn’t hit for much power in 2020 (.170 ISO) but he makes himself a tough out at the plate by only striking out at a 4.3% (100th percentile) clip. If he is able to keep up his current production at the plate, La Stella will set up his teammates by giving more opportunities with runner(s) on base. This forces opposing teams into high leverage situations earlier and more often.

Due to the struggles of Marcus Semien (whole season) and Ramon Laureano (since returning from his suspension on August 18th), La Stella will be a very important bat at the top of the A’s batting order. Semien, one year removed from a season in which he had a 7.6 fWAR placing third in the AL MVP voting, has really struggled at the plate in 2020. Semien is slashing a mediocre .227/.299/.392 with a .301 wOBA, .290 xwOBA, and 91 wRC+. Even though he’s been struggling, Semien has still found himself in the top third of the A’s batting order. In 19 games before he was suspended, Laureano was off to a hot start at the plate slashing .262/.398/.462 with a .370 wOBA and 140 wRC+. Since returning from his suspension Lauerano hasn’t been nearly as good as he was before his suspension slashing .202/.321/.315 with a .291 wOBA and 84 wRC+ across 26 games. Unlike Semien, Laureano has been moved down to the bottom third of the lineup.

La Stella’s importance to the team became more apparent than ever when it was announced star third basemen Matt Chapman was placed on the IL and would miss the rest of the 2020 season. Due to his ability to play third base, La Stella could find himself starting at the hot corner in the playoffs depending on how Jake Lamb, Tony Kemp, Chad Pinder (assuming he returns off the IL), and Vimael Machin finish their seasons and how manager Bob Melvin decides to align his players.

Rotation

RHP Frankie Montas: 188 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 9.22 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 4.0 fWAR

LHP Sean Manaea: 170 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 8.44 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 3.1 fWAR

RHP Mike Fiers: 156 IP, 4.72 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 6.49 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9, 1.2 fWAR

LHP Jesus Luzardo: 165 IP, 3.41 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 10.24 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 3.5 fWAR

LHP A.J. Puk: 130 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 10.61 K/9, 3.88 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 2.8 fWAR

Bullpen

RHP Chris Bassitt: 120 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 8.57 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, 1.6 fWAR

LHP T.J. McFarland: 56 IP, 4.47 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 5.38 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 0.3 fWAR

RHP J.B. Wendelken: 65 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 9.43 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 1.5 fWAR

RHP Lou Trivino: 68 IP, 3.82 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 0.7 fWAR

RHP Yusmeiro Petit: 75 IP, 3.40 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 7.57 K/9, 1.40 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 0.9 fWAR

LHP Jake Diekman: 61 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 11.60 K/9, 5.34 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, 1.1 fWAR

RHP Joakim Soria: 67 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 10.35 K/9, 2.73 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 1.6 fWAR

RHP Liam Hendriks: 73 IP, 2.71 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 12.49 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 2.1 fWAR

A common trend you may notice in these predictions is a slight ERA underperformance of FIP. This is very characteristic of A’s pitchers, as in the last decade our arms averaged an ERA .22 lower than their FIP. It’s hard to pinpoint why exactly this is, but it’s definitely something to note.

Starters

C Sean Murphy: .261/.339/.442, 18 HR, .332 wOBA, 111 wRC+, 5.6 FRAA, 2.7 bWARP (I will use bWARP for catchers because of its use of FRAA, in my opinion the best catching defensive metric).

1B Matt Olson: .272/.364/.557, 43 HR, .380 wOBA, 141 wRC+, 9 OAA, 7.2 UZR, 5.1 fWAR

2B Franklin Barreto: 125 G, .232/.295/.444, 17 HR, .310 wOBA, 97 wRC+, 1 OAA,  -0.6 UZR, 1.0 fWAR

3B Matt Chapman: .264/.361/.523, 40 HR, .374 wOBA, 138 wRC+, 18 OAA, 16.0 UZR, 7.2 fWAR

SS Marcus Semien: .274/.357/.488, 27 HR, .359 wOBA, 126 wRC+, -3 OAA,  4.7 UZR, 4.9 fWAR

LF Mark Canha: .244/.358/.462, 23 HR, .348 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 1 OAA, -0.7 UZR, 3.0 fWAR

CF Ramon Laureano: .273/.335/.482, 25 HR, .346 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 1 OAA, 4.0 UZR, 4.3 fWAR

RF Stephen Piscotty: .259/.327/.452, 21 HR, .329 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 1 OAA, -0.6 UZR, 1.7 fWAR

DH: Khris Davis: .247/.322/.479, 34 HR, .334 wOBA, 112 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

Bench

C Austin Allen: .230/.292/.420, 10 HR, .298 wOBA, 88 wRC+, 3.3 FRAA, 1.3 bWARP

UTL Chad Pinder: .249/.303/.433, 14 HR, .308 wOBA, 96 wRC+, -2 OAA, 0.7 UZR, 1.1 fWAR

OF Robbie Grossman: .257/.353/.374, 9 HR, .317 wOBA, 100 wRC+, 0 OAA, 2.1 UZR, 0.9 fWAR

UTL Tony Kemp: .218/.304/.337, 6 HR, .281 wOBA, 78 wRC+, 7 OAA, 1.4 UZR, 0.2 fWAR

IF Vimael Machin: .260/.362/.359, 5 HR, .322 wOBA, 102 wRC+, -2 OAA, -1.1 UZR, 0.8 fWAR

As I hinted at in the last article, I really like our team going into this year. I think we’re being overlooked (per usual), and are real threats in the American League. We should be getting some bounce-back seasons from several players, and overall across the board we don’t have any clear weaknesses. I’m excited to see our boys back in action and ready to do some damage.

Starters

C: Sean Murphy

1B: Matt Olson

2B: Franklin Barreto

3B: Matt Chapman

SS: Marcus Semien

LF: Mark Canha

CF: Ramon Laureano

RF: Stephen Piscotty

DH: Khris Davis

Bench

C: Austin Allen

UTL: Chad Pinder

OF: Robbie Grossman

INF: Vimael Machin

The starting nine is pretty righty-heavy, but luckily we have some left-handed hitting options off the bench. The lineup seems likely to feature several platoons: behind the plate, Murphy and Allen should switch off regularly, unless of course Murphy really impresses and establishes himself as a big-league starting catcher right off the bat. At second base, the A’s have a host of players in battle for the spot, most notably featuring Franklin Barreto, Tony Kemp, prospects Jorge Mateo and Sheldon Neuse, and Rule-5 pickup Vimael Machin. Barreto is a pick of mine for a breakthrough season, and along with him I chose former Cubs minor-leaguer Vimael Machin for the platoon at second. Machin might not be the hottest-looking pick considering that he’s never sniffed the majors and has only played twelve games at triple-A, but I’ll take his high on-base approach over Kemp’s 77 wRC+ and 15.7% hard hit rate last year, or Jorge Mateo’s inability to put up even league-average numbers in the minors. In the outfield, Laureano is a lock, and Canha and Piscotty should get the majority of the playing time at the corners. Grossman and Pinder are at the ready to fill in wherever when needed. I couldn’t include Seth Brown here despite his high praise from A’s fans, his small sample-sized success last year just doesn’t seem sustainable. Other than the war at second, the A’s are pretty set around the diamond.

Rotation

RHP Frankie Montas

LHP Sean Manaea

RHP Mike Fiers

LHP Jesus Luzardo

LHP A.J. Puk

I would say four out-of five here are locks, with the possibility of Puk winding up in the pen, but the order could go many different ways. I have Montas as our number one, coming off a stellar although shortened 2019 campaign. However you could really make the argument for all four as the ace of the staff, with Manaea being lights-out in his short stint after returning from injury last year, Fiers seeing nice success in his time in Oakland thus far, and Luzardo with his superstar potential. Righty Chris Bassitt is also an option that could easily wind up in the back of the rotation, however many (including myself) see him as better fit for a long-relief role. The possibility of a six-man rotation has also been brought up, however in a shortened season I think we would get the most out of our arms keeping it at five.

Bullpen

RHP Chris Bassitt

LHP T.J. McFarland

RHP J.B. Wendelken

RHP Lou Trivino

RHP Yusmeiro Petit

LHP Jake Diekman

RHP Joakim Soria

RHP Liam Hendriks

This pen has the potential to be lights out. It struggled last year, but we’re due to see some big improvements in 2020. Trivino, Diekman and Soria are all good candidates for bounce-back seasons. J.B. Wendelken seems to have what it takes to cement himself as a crucial arm in our pen. Yusmeiro Petit should continue to be a workhorse. There’s no reason to believe that Hendriks won’t be dominant again. There are some questions as to who will pitch when, but I think the roles will roughly go in the order laid out. A.J. Puk is also a possibility for the pen, and his stuff could play amazingly condensed into a relief appearance. In 2019 no lead felt safe, but it’s looking like this year could be a different story.

That’s what I believe would make for our best roster for the 2020 season. However we do have solid depth across the board so I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up looking pretty different. We have some key pieces we’re losing to free agency after 2020, so let’s cross our fingers that we get to see baseball this year so that this squad doesn’t go to waste.

April 23, 2020

First overall: Washington Nationals

Original pick: Bryce Harper

Re-Draft pick: Christian Yelich (23)

Although Bryce Harper was the face of the Washington Nationals franchise from 2012-2018, he was a living rollercoaster. Harper has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career which is evident when viewing the range of his best/worst WAR seasons. In 2015, Harper had a 9.3 WAR (153 games) but the following season had only a 2.9 WAR (147 games). Over the past couple of seasons, Christian Yelich has proven to be better than Harper and the rest of the 2010 MLB Draft class. Since 2018, Yelich has put up significantly better offensive and defensive stats compared to Harper:

Christian Yelich: .415 SLG, .631 SLG, 1.046 OPS, .431 wOBA, 170 wRC+, 15.4 WAR, -1 DRS, 1.5 UZR, 0 OAA.

Bryce Harper: .383 SLG, .505 SLG, .888 OPS, .371 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 8.0 WAR, -14 DRS, -4.4 UZR, -12 OAA.

The numbers speak for themselves, Yelich has proven to be much better than Harper over the past couple of season and he’s been consistently good (if not great) throughout his career unlike Harper.

Second overall: Pittsburgh Pirates

Original pick: Jameson Taillon

Re-Draft pick: Jacob deGrom (272)

While Jameson Taillon has been solid throughout his career (so far), he isn’t an elite starter. Unfortunately, Taillon is also injury prone. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, he is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery he had in August of 2019, and has only thrown more than 150 innings in a season once. Not only has Jacob deGrom proven to be the best pitcher from the 2010 draft class, he also makes a strong case for being the best pitcher in all of baseball. Throughout six seasons in the major leagues (1,101.2 innings), deGrom has a 2.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.78 FIP, 3.20 SIERA, 10.25 K/9, 2.17 BB/9. These are elite numbers. In addition to his great stats, deGrom has been recognized as an elite pitcher by winning 2014 NL Rookie of the Year, being named to three All Star teams (2015, 2018, 2019), and winning two NL Cy Young Awards (2018 & 2019).

Third overall: Baltimore Orioles

Original pick: Manny Machado

Re-Draft pick: Bryce Harper (1)

Similar to how Bryce Harper was the Nationals franchise player from 2012-2018, Machado was the Orioles franchise player from 2012 up until he was traded at the 2018 trade deadline. Although Machado has been very durable throughout his career, Harper has had a better career. Harper has a higher OBP by 50 points, SLG by 29 points, OPS by 79 points, wOBA by 32 points, wRC+ by 20 points, and WAR by 1.9 points. Although Harper is a much better offensive player, Machado is definitely the better defender. The Orioles would take Harper over Machado in this Re-Draft because he has proven more throughout his career than Machado has.

Fourth overall: Kansas City Royals

Original pick: Christian Colon

Re-Draft pick: Chris Sale (13)

Christian Colon was the first of multiple busts taken within the top 10 picks of the 2010 Draft. Although he showed promise during the 2014 season (21 major league games), Colon has struggled at the plate throughout his career. In 150 major league games, Colon has batted a dismal .321 OBP, .318 SLG, .640 OPS, .287 wOBA, and 76 wRC+. Although he is a terrible hitter, Colon plays serviceable defense and is a good pinch runner. Currently, Colon is in the Cincinnati Reds organization. Chris Sale has had an opposite career to Christian Colon in terms of production at the major league level. Since debuting in 2010, Sale has a career 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.90 FIP, 2.81 SIERA, 11.08 K/9, and 2.07 BB/9. The only thing holding Chris Sale back right now is injuries. Sale has a notoriously “weird” throwing motion but hadn’t faced many injury problems until the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Unfortunately, Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March and will miss the 2020 season (assuming there is one).

Fifth overall: Cleveland Indians

Original pick: Drew Pomeranz

Re-Draft pick: Manny Machado (3)

Drew Pomeranz isn’t necessarily a bust but looking back, he definitely didn’t deserve to be a top five pick. Pomeranz has had a decent career so far, even making the 2016 All Star team. So far into his career, Pomeranz has a 4.04 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.20 FIP, 4.15 SIERA, 9.11 K/9, and 3.86 BB/9. He has solid numbers, but definitely not worthy of being the fifth overall pick. Manny Machado is the most talented player available and the Indians are essentially getting a steal. Machado has proven to be a solid hitter and an elite defender at one of the most important defensive positions in the games. Throughout his career, Machado has averaged a .335 OBP, .483 SLG, .818 OPS, .347 wOBA, 118 wRC+ at the plate; has accumulated a total 74 DRS, 46.2 UZR, -2 OAA (only 2017-2019 because it’s a new stat) in the field; and has a total of WAR of 33.2.

Sixth overall: Arizona Diamondbacks

Original pick: Barret Loux

Re-Draft pick: Yasmani Grandal (12)

Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, Barret Loux was a bust. After surprising many by taking Loux sixth overall (he was a projected to be drafted at the end of the first round), the Diamondbacks never even signed him. The Diamondbacks and Loux agreed to a pre-draft $2 million signing bonus but when Loux failed his physical, the Diamondbacks never offered him a contract and instead took a compensation pick in the beginning of the 2011 draft. Loux played in the Rangers organization, Cubs organization, and in an Independent League but never made it the majors and hasn’t played professionally since 2016. Yasmani Grandal has had a great major league career so far and is one of, if not the best catcher in baseball. While people may argue J.T. Realmuto is better, most stats are in favor of Grandal:

Yasmani Grandal career stats (879 games): .348 OBP, .446 SLG, .794 OPS, .361 wOBA, 118 wRC+, 70 DRS, 134.1 FRM, 32.6 WAR (offensive stats are a yearly average, defensive stats are career total)

J.T. Realmuto career stats (685 games): .327 OBP, .452 SLG, .779 OPS, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+, -3 DRS, -17.1 FRM, 17.2 WAR (offensive stats are a yearly average, defensive stats are career total)

You can also see a stat comparison between Grandal and Realmuto from just the 2018-2019 season on @mlbzone_ Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/p/B9nH62DFSRc/) from March 11, 2020.

Seventh overall: New York Mets

Original pick: Matt Harvey

Re-Draft pick: Noah Syndergaard (38)

Even though Matt Harvey at one point was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, injuries have held him back. Harvey originally debuted at the end of the 2012 season but became a star during 2013. Harvey was named a 2013 All Star but unfortunately missed the entire 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery. In 2015, Harvey returned to peak form as he was the ace of the Mets (who made it to the World Series) and won 2015 Comeback Player of the Year. Ever since the 2015 season, Harvey was never the same. He has delt with injuries and hasn’t been able to pitch anywhere close to how he did in 2013 or 2015. Coincidently, Noah Syndergaard was a teammate of Matt Harvey. Although he was drafted by the Blue Jays, Syndergaard was traded to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey blockbuster trade. Ever since debuting for the Mets, Syndergaard has been one of the Mets’ best pitchers and has proven to be a quality starter (when healthy). Throughout his career (716.0 innings), Syndergaard has a 3.31 ERA, .1.16 WHIP, 2.92 FIP, 3.37 SIERA, 9.74 K/9, 2.09 BB/9. The one set back Syndergaard has had in his career are injuries. Syndergaard missed most of the 2017 season due to a torn lat muscle and is expected to miss the entire 2020 season (if there is one) after having Tommy John surgery.

Eighth overall: Houston Astros

Original pick: Delino DeShields Jr

Re-Draft pick: J.T. Realmuto (104)

Delino DeShields Jr has been a solid depth player throughout his career but he definitely wasn’t worth being a top 10 draft selection. DeShields ended up in the Texas Rangers organization via the Rule 5 draft and had been part of the Rangers organization until he was traded to the Indians this past winter. In his five total MLB seasons (539 games), DeShields has only been able to accumulate a 4.8 WAR. J.T. Realmuto has been much more successful in his major league tenure. Realmuto is a 2x All Star (2018, 2019), 2x Silver Slugger (2018, 2019) and 1x Gold Glove winner (2019). Over the past few years, one of the Astros’ biggest needs has (and still is) a catcher. Had they drafted Realmuto, the Astros would’ve had an even stronger lineup compared to the powerhouse they have now.

Ninth overall: San Diego Padres

Original pick: Karsten Whitson

Re-Draft pick: Adam Eaton (571)

After being drafted ninth overall, Karsten Whiston decided to attend college instead of signing with the Padres. Unfortunately for Whitson, he was again projected to be a high selection in the 2013 MLB Draft but he had shoulder surgery and was selected in the 37th round. A year later, he was selected in the 11th round and played one season of class A short season. Whitson hasn’t appeared in another minor league game and is now an assistant coach for South Florida (NCAA). Throughout his career, Adam Eaton has been one of baseball’s most underrated outfielders. Eaton has averaged a .363 OBP, .428 SLG, .781 OPS, .342 wOBA, 114 wRC+ accumulated a total 6 DRS, 5.8 UZR, 14 OAA (only 2017-2019 because it’s a new stat), and has a career 19.3 WAR.

Tenth overall: Oakland Athletics

Original pick: Michael Choice

Re-Draft pick: Nick Castellanos (44)

Michael Choice was a bust. Choice made his debut as a September call up back in 2013 but didn’t show much potential. Choice was traded to the Rangers in the 2013 offseason and appeared in 86 Major League games in the 2014 season. Since 2014, Choice has only played in one major league game and has bounced around the Minor Leagues, the KBO, and the Mexican League. Nick Castellanos has become an explosive offensive player since 2016. From 2016-2019, Castellanos has averaged a .336 OBP, .504 SLG, .840 OPS, .353 wOBA, 121 wRC+ and accumulated a 9.7 WAR over those four season. Although he is explosive offensively, he’s not a very good defender. In his career, Castellanos has a -35 DRS in the outfield, -38 DRS at third base, -26.2 UZR in the outfield, -25.8 UZR at third base, and a -45 OAA (only 2017-2019 because it’s a new stat). Luckily, the A’s are an American League and would have the option to make Castellanos the DH.

Re-Draft Board

Featured image via camdenchat.com

April 16, 2020

Today, I had the privilege to interview Austin Beck. Beck attended North Davidson High School in Welcome, North Carolina before he turned pro. Before a playoff game in his junior year of high school, Beck tore his ACL which forced him to miss the rest of the playoffs and all of summer ball. Beck fully recovered for the start of his senior year and proved to scouts why he was a top high school talent. Although he had a scholarship to play baseball at the University of North Carolina, Beck decided to enter the 2017 MLB Draft. Beck was selected sixth overall by the Oakland A’s and signed for a franchise record $5,303,000. In 2019, Beck played for the Stockton Ports (Class A-Advanced) and was recently rated the number 11 prospect in the A’s farm system by prospects1500.com.

Question: When you tore your ACL, what was your initial reaction? What motivated you to overcome your ACL tear and return back to the field?

Answer: My initial reaction was that I would be fine in a couple (of) days and be back in the lineup in the state playoffs, but when I found out I tore it I was upset especially the team we had, but I just had the drive that I wanted to try and get back for summer ball so I spent hours and hours in rehab every single day and was able to get back in 5 months which is crazy to think about.

Question: Although you had a scholarship to play baseball at the University of North Carolina, why did you decide to go pro? What was the biggest change going straight from high school to the minor leagues?

Answer: I decided to go pro because it was so hard to pass up the opportunity pro ball was going to give me, it was always my dream to get the chance to play in the big leagues and if that meant skipping college then I would have. UNC was always my dream school to play baseball at but when I got drafted I knew the decision would be easy. (The) biggest change was definitely the work load and playing for so much longer, but once you figure out a routine to stay healthy then it gets a whole lot easier.

Question: What was the MLB Draft process like? What were you able to do that stood out to scouts? 

Answer: The draft is a crazy thing, it was even crazier coming off an injury because I had workouts for scouts after every practice during the year because they all wanted to see what I could do since I missed all of the summer circuit.

Question: What are your goals for the 2020 season (assuming there is one)? How will this help you eventually reach the major leagues?

Answer: My goals for this season (assuming we play) are just (to) be better at the plate with the pitches I swing at and the counts I put myself into, just have a better plan at the plate and to not miss my pitch when I get it.

Question: What have you been doing during quarantine to stay ready for the season? How has it been different then a regular spring training?

Answer: I’ve been hitting off the tee and working out a lot with the tools that I have, it’s hard to do too much because nothing is open, it’s completely different than normal because right now we’d be playing and the season would be in full send but as a player we always have to adapt to everything so being able to adapt to this pandemic has been a lot easier

Featured image via oaklandclubhouse.com