New York Mets

The New York Mets have the sixth best wRC+ in baseball (110), but they have received almost no offensive production from their catchers as they have combined for an atrocious 52 wRC+ (second worst in MLB). Although they have prized prospect Francisco Alvarez in AAA, he’s probably not ready to make his MLB debut until 2023. Contreras almost seems like a perfect fit for the Mets because they desperately need to improve behind the plate between now and when Alvarez is ready to be called up. With Contreras on an expiring contract, the Mets won’t need to break the bank in order to acquire the All Star catcher.

Mock trade:

Mets receive: Wilson Contreras, David Robertson

Cubs receive: Mark Vientos, Dominic Hamel, Dominic Smith

Package details:

• Mark Vientos (1B/3B/OF) (5th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 8th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 45 FV)
• Dominic Hamel (RHP) (9th best prospect in the organization by MLB.com, 15th best prospect in the organization by FanGraphs, 40 FV)
• Dominic Smith (1B/OF) (.246,.308/.424 (100 wRC+), -0.1 fWAR in 447 MLB games, controlled through 2024)

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have the fourth best team wRC+ (120) and position player fWAR (18.8), but they’ve received negative value from their backstops. Astros catchers have combined for -0.9 fWAR (worst in MLB), 50 wRC+ (worst in MLB), and all three of their catchers have a negative DRS and FRM. Although the Astros love Martin Maldonado and he does a great job managing the team’s pitching staff, they could really use an upgrade. Veteran Jason Castro — who was having a horrible season — has a knee injury that might bring him into retirement and rookie Korey Lee has really struggled in his first big league stint. Moving Maldonado into a backup role while bringing in Contreras as the everyday catcher could make an already great Astros lineup even deeper.

Mock trade:

Astros receive: Willson Contreras 

Cubs receive: Colin Barber, Joe Perez, J.J. Matijevic

Package details:

• Colin Barber (OF) (5th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 2nd best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 45 FV)
• Joe Perez (3B/1B) (8th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 9th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 40+ FV)
• J.J. Matijevic (1B) (30th ranked prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 23rd ranked prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 35+ FV, .196/.255/.353 (75 wRC+) in 24 MLB games)

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are only two games behind the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central lead and are only 2.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot. Willson Contreras would be a perfect fit for the Guardians if they are serious about competing for a playoff spot. So far this season, the Guardians’ primary catchers have both been around replacement level as Luke Maile has a 0.2 fWAR and Austin Hedges has a 0.0 fWAR. Additionally, Franmil Reyes has been atrocious at the plate this season with a 70 wRC+, so the Guardians could opt to have Contreras DH if they prefer.

Mock trade:

Guardians acquire: Willson Contreras

Cubs acquire: Angel Martinez, Petey Halpin

Package details:

• Angel Martinez (10th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com and FanGraphs, 45 FV)
• Petey Halpin (OF) (14th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 17th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 45 FV)

San Diego Padres

Jorge Alfaro has had a shockingly good season for the Padres hitting .277/.312/.446 (114 wRC+) with a 1.2 fWAR, but I’m not sure how sustainable his offensive production is. Alfaro’s .398 BABIP is the highest in Major League Baseball (minimum 200 ABs), his 34.8 K% is in the second percentile, and his 4.7 BB% is in the seventh percentile. Additionally, fellow backstop Austin Nola has a -0.2 fWAR, so the Padres would add a lot more stability by acquiring Contreras. With Fernando Tatis Jr. set to come back and by adding another big bat in Contreras, the Padres’ current below average offense would likely become well above average.

Mock trade:

Padres acquire: Willson Contreras

Cubs acquire: Samuel Zavala, Jarlin Susana, Eguy Rosario

Package details:

• Samuel Zavala (OF) (10th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 7th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 40+ FV)
• Jarlin Susana (RHP) (15th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 8th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 40+ FV)
• Eguy Rosario (2B/3B) (5th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 13th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 40 FV)

Houston Astros

The Astros have arguably the best lineup in baseball, but they’ve received atrocious production from their first basemen. Yuli Gurriel has fallen off drastically from winning the battle title and gold glove last year as his wRC+ is down 42 points, his OAA is down 5 outs, and his fWAR is in the negatives. Additionally, the Astros have received a negative WAR value from rookie J.J. Matijevic and utility man Aledmys Diaz has been below average offensively. Adding Bell to an already loaded lineup would be a pitcher’s worst nightmare come October.

Mock trade:

Astros receive: Josh Bell

Nationals receive: Jose Siri, Freudis Nova

Package details:

• Jose Siri (OF) (27 years old, team controlled through 2027, .210/.265/.381 (81 wRC+), 3.2 BsR, 8 OAA, 1.2 fWAR in 69 MLB games)
• Freudis Nova (SS) (second best prospect in Astros system entering 2020 but has since become unranked due to poor performance and an ACL injury that held him out the majority of 2021 and all of 2022 so far)

New York Mets

The Mets already have a stud first basemen in Pete Alonso and recently acquired Daniel Vogelbach, but there are many rumors that they are in on Josh Bell. The Mets have been great at getting on base as their .323 OBP is the fifth best in MLB, but they have been a below-average power team as their .142 ISO is the 20th best and their 92 home runs are the 19th best. Adding Bell would surely help improve the Mets’ power numbers and deepen their already good lineup that much more.

Mock trade:

Mets acquire: Josh Bell

Nationals acquire: Eric Orze, Dominic Hamel

Package details:

• Eric Orze (RHP) (17th best prospect in the organization by MLB.com, 10th best prospect in the organization by FanGraphs, 45 FV)
• Dominic Hamel (RHP) (9th best prospect in the organization by MLB.com, 15th best prospect in the organization by FanGraphs, 40 FV)

Cleveland Guardians

One of the most fascinating teams to watch over trade deadline season is the Cleveland Guardians. Currently, the team is only three games back of the AL Central lead and two games back of the third wild card spot. On the other hand, Cleveland has notoriously been known to sell, so who knows what they have planned. If they do decide to be buyers, Josh Bell would be a great addition. Cleveland has been a middle-of-the-pack team offensively with a 99 wRC+ this season, so adding Bell could do wonders towards improving their chances of making the postseason.

Mock trade:

Guardians acquire: Josh Bell

Nationals acquire: Xavion Curry, Carson Tucker

Package details:

• Xavion Curry (RHP) (20th best prospect in the organization by MLB.com, 12th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 45 FV)
• Carson Tucker (2B/SS) (17th best prospect in the organization by MLB.com, 15th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs (from last year, for some reason not in FanGraphs’ top 54 for the Guardians), 2020 first round pick, 40+ FV)

Boston Red Sox

Like the Guardians, the Red Sox are an interesting team to look at as we head towards the trade deadline. The Red Sox currently sit at .500 after getting walloped by the Blue Jays this past weekend and only winning one of their last 10 games. Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez, Kiké Hernandez, and Nathan Eovaldi are all set to be free agents following the season while Rafael Devers has one more year of arbitration before he becomes a free agent. If the Red Sox want to run it back and try to make another deep run in October, they will need to improve their first base situation. The Red Sox have mostly relied on Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero at first base and the two have -0.3 fWAR and 0.0 fWAR respectively. Acquiring Josh Bell would be a huge boost over those two and could have a similar impact to the Red Sox’s lineup that Kyle Schwarber brought them last year.

Mock trade:

Red Sox acquire: Josh Bell

Nationals acquire: Gilberto Jimenez, Jay Groome

Package details:

• Gilberto Jimenez (OF) (17th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 13th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 45 FV)
• Jay Groome (LHP) (11th best prospect in the organization via MLB.com, 16th best prospect in the organization via FanGraphs, 40+ FV)

Noah Syndergaard

Contract: 1 year $22 million with the Los Angeles Angels

Before COVID-19 shut down the world and baseball in 2020, Noah Syndergaard experienced discomfort in his elbow during Spring Training. A couple of weeks after Spring Training was shut down, Syndergaard underwent Tommy John Surgery. Before undergoing Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard was one of the best starting pitchers in all of Major league Baseball. From his rookie season in 2015 to his last season pre Tommy John season in 2019, Syndergaard had a spectacular 3.31 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.17 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, and 18.8 fWAR. Syndergaard was pretty durable during this stretch as he pitched at least 150 innings in every season but 2017 (30.1 innings as a result of a torn lat muscle in his right arm). During these five years, it’s important to note that Syndergaard had the highest average four-seam fastball velocity (98.1 mph) among all qualified starting pitchers. Syndergaard was able to return at the end of last season, and there was a noticeable dip in his velocity. Albeit it he only pitched two innings, Syndergaard’s average four-seam fastball velocity was 94.4 mph. Additionally, Syndergaard’s average sinker velocity was down 2.8 mph, his average changeup velocity was down 2.0 mph, and he didn’t throw his slider or curveball at all. It’d probably be foolish to think his velocity remains this low and that he stops throwing his slider and curveball altogether, but there is a reason to at least be a little bit concerned. I would give the Angels a B+ for signing Syndergaard. While there are definitely safer and better value options available, only a select group of pitchers have a ceiling near Syndergaard’s. If the Angels can continue adding more quality rotation pieces (preferably to have a six-man rotation which would likely benefit Syndergaard and Shohei Ohtani) and stay healthy, they can be a sleeper playoff team in 2022. If Syndergaard can’t stay healthy or he just isn’t good, the Angels won’t have to worry long term as the contract is just for a year. 

Justin Verlander

Contract: 2 years $50 million with the Houston Astros (player option for the second year worth $25 million)

Like Syndergaard, Justin Verlander underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020. Verlander started Opening Day in 2020 for the Astros and pitched 6 innings while allowing two runs. That was Verlander’s only start of the season after he reported forearm discomfort, which led to Tommy John surgery. Unlike Syndergaard, Verlander was not able to pitch at all in 2021 which is important to note for a potential big reason. 2021 was the first season MLB began to actively try and cut down on “sticky stuff.” In an article published by Sports Illustrated a few months ago, Verlander was among those mentioned using substances made by former Angels employee Bubba Harkins. Verlander has been a great pitcher over the last decade+, but the combining factors of not being able to use substances (we’ll see how true this is once he starts pitching in games again) and that he’ll be 39 years old coming off of Tommy John surgery show that there is definitely some risk moving forward. While the risk is apparent, so is the reward. In his last full season pitching in 2019, Verlander pitched 223.0 innings to a 2.58 ERA, 2.50 xERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 2.95 SIERA, and 6.4 fWAR winning the AL Cy Young. The Astros saw firsthand how badly they needed to improve their starting pitching throughout the Postseason. Across their 16 Postseason games, the Astros starting pitchers were able to pitch at least five innings just four times. If Verlander — who led all of Major League Baseball in innings pitched in his two full seasons with the Astros from 2018-2019 — stays healthy, he could be a huge boost to the Astros rotation that will now likely consist of himself, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy. I would give the Astros an A- for bringing back Verlander. While we don’t have any information of how he looked in a game this season, Astros general manager James Click spoke highly of him recently saying: “He’s been great about letting us know when he’s going to be throwing so we can get in there and get an eye on him, see how he’s doing. The videos I’ve seen have been awesome.” Considering the financial commitment the Astros have given to Verlander, Click’s comments indicate Verlander is in a good position to perform like the Astros ace in 2022 and 2023. 

Anthony DeSclafani

Contract: 3 years $36 million with the San Francisco Giants

After an underwhelming end to his six-year tenure with the Cincinnati Reds in 2020, Anthony DeSclafani signed a one-year $6 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. This turned out to be a great decision for DeSclafani as he had a career-best 3.17 ERA across 167.2 innings pitched to go along with a 3.95 xERA, 3.62, 3.95 xFIP, 4.11 SIERA, and 3.0 fWAR. By betting on himself taking a one-year deal last offseason, DeSclafani was able to double his average annual value over three years after his successful 2021 campaign. While DeSclafani isn’t a front-line rotation piece, he is a sold starter. Despite some injuries over the past few years, DeSclafani has pitched at least 120 innings in every full season besides 2017 and 2018 (he missed the entire 2017 season due to a UCL injury and his 2018 MLB season started in June because he was still recovering from his injury) since establishing himself in the Major Leagues in 2015 and has had an ERA of 4.05 or below in four of these five seasons. I would give the Giants an A- for resigning DeSclafani, but only under the condition that they can bring in a true ace/number two starter to pair with Logan Webb. If the Giants are unable to bring in another top-tier starter, I won’t like this signing as much because I don’t think DeSclafani is a good number two starter on a team trying to contend for the World Series. However if the Giants can bring in another top-tier starter, I’d feel very confident in DeSclafani as their third/fourth starter. While his peripherals from last season and preseason 2022 projections don’t see him as a 3.17 ERA type pitcher, DeSclafani will likely be a solid and reliable 3.5-4 ERA type pitcher barring any significant injuries. 

Alex Wood

Contract: 2 years $20+ million (still not confirmed) with the San Francisco Giants

Once he became primarily a full-time starter in 2014, Alex Wood was a very solid pitcher for the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers from 2014-2018. Over these five seasons, Wood had a 3.31 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, 3.70 SIERA, and 12.2 fWAR across 725.2 innings pitched. Wood pitched at least 150 innings in each of these seasons besides 2016 (he only pitched 60.1 innings due to a posterior impingement in his left elbow which sidelined him for the majority of the season) and had an ERA under 3.75 in each of these seasons besides 2015 (3.84). After the 2018 season, Wood was traded to the Reds in the same package as Yasiel Puig. In his lone season as a Red, Wood had a 5.80 ERA and only pitched in 35.2 innings due to a back injury. Wood returned to the Dodgers in 2020, but he was mainly used as a reliever after suffering a shoulder injury and posted a 6.39 ERA in just 12.2 regular season innings. Although he struggled in the regular season, Wood did pitch 6.1 scoreless innings in the Postseason helping the Dodgers win the World Series. In a somewhat similar position to Anthony DeSclafani, Wood signed a one-year deal with the San Francisco Giants worth $3 million before the 2021 season. Like DeSclafani, Wood’s one-year bet on himself paid off. In 138.2 innings pitched, Wood had a 3.83 ERA, 3.90 xERA, 3.48 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA, and 2.5 fWAR. Wood’s great 2021 earned him more than triple his annual average value from 2021 over two years. I would give the Giants an A for resigning Wood, but only under the condition that they can bring in a true ace/number two starter to pair with Logan Webb (for the same reasoning as above). While Wood certainly has injury risk, only paying him around $10 million a year for two years has low risk and high reward if he can repeat (or perform better than) his 2021 season. 

Steven Matz

Contract: 4 years $44 million with the St. Louis Cardinals

In his first two seasons in the Major Leagues, Steven Matz looked like he was on his way to becoming a good starting pitcher for years to come. In his first 168.0 Major League innings with the Mets in 2015 and 2016, Matz had a 3.16 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 3.54 SIERA, and 3.0 fWAR. Matz’s 2017 campaign started in June as a result of elbow inflammation and he pitched horribly to 6.08 ERA over just 66.2 innings. Matz was able to bounce back in 2018 and 2019, but not to the extent of how well he pitched from 2015-2016. Although progress was made in the seasons prior, 2020 was an absolute nightmare for Matz as he had a 9.68 ERA in 30.2 innings pitched. Following the worst season of his career, Matz was traded to the Blue Jays before the 2021 season. With the Blue Jays, Matz completely revived his career as he pitched 150.2 innings to a 3.82 ERA, 4.09 xERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 4.12 SIERA, and 2.8 fWAR. Matz’s turnaround in 2021 earned him a four-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. Although they made the Postseason last season, the Cardinals only had one starting pitcher who pitched at least 100 innings (Adam Wainwright who pitched 206.1 innings). Beyond Wainwright, the Cardinals rotation also has Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, and Miles Mikolas who all dealt with injuries last season. I would give the Cardinals a B+ for signing Matz. There was a glaring need to add another starter, so I like that the Cardinals did not hesitate to sign Matz. While I do think Matz’s $11 million annual average is fair for both sides, I’m not a huge fan of the Cardinals giving him a four-year contract. On top of being 31 years old when the 2022 season starts, Matz has dealt with his fair share of injuries and inconsistencies in the Major Leagues. However, what makes me like this deal is that the Cardinals were the best defensive team in baseball last season and with their core pretty much set into place, there is no reason to believe their defense will all of a sudden turn bad. The Cardinals were in desperate need of adding a starter, and adding one of Matz’s caliber with their defense behind him has a great ceiling. 

On July 10th, the Atlanta Braves lost to the rebuilding Miami Marlins which put their record exactly at .500 (44-44), put them 4.5 games back of the first-place New York Mets in the NL East, dropped their odds (via Fangraphs) to make the Postseason to 8.4%, dropped their odds to win the NL Pennant to a mere 1.3%, and lost their star right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn ACL. At this point in the season, it seemed the Braves had no hope for the rest of the season and that the team should start building towards winning in 2022. Wrong.

Instead of sitting back and letting the season get worse, Braves general manager and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos quickly traded for then Chicago Cubs outfielder Joc Pederson. A couple of weeks later, Anthopoulos also acquired outfielders Adam Duvall from the Miami Marlins, Eddie Rosario from the Cleveland Indians, and Jorge Soler from the Kansas City Royals. Although it appeared that the Braves’ outfield would be a mess following Acuña’s injury, the pieces of the puzzle to fix the mess were now on the team. As Braves, all four outfielders have been above average at the plate, but Rosario and Soler have performed at all-star levels. In 55 games with the Braves, Soler had a 132 wRC+ and in 33 games with the Braves, Rosario had a 133 wRC+. For comparison’s sake, Soler and Rosario performed slightly better at the plate in a Braves uniform than Mookie Betts did this season (131 wRC+). In addition to crushing it at the plate with the Braves during the regular season, Rosario’s bat has been even hotter in the Postseason as he has a 243 wRC+ and an NLCS MVP trophy.

Despite making it to the ALCS last season, the Astros were just 29-31 and Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel were coming off the worst seasons of their careers. Additionally, the Astros were set to face some tough crowds as a result of fans now being allowed in the stands since their sign-stealing scandal from 2017-2018 became publically known. With the players needing to reprove themselves to MLB fans and some coming off career-worst seasons, there could’ve been some added pressure on the team, but it sure didn’t look that way. The Astros had the best team offense in all of MLB this year, won the AL West, had the second overall Postseason seed in the AL, and won the AL pennant. The team was able to accomplish all of this playing in their first season without superstar center fielder George Springer (Blue Jays), 2019 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (Tommy John surgery), and was without their ace Lance McCuller Jr. for the ALCS and will be without him for the World Series (forearm injury).

Offense

As I mentioned above, the Astros were the best offensive team in MLB this season. As a team, they had a 116 wRC+ and every hitter 1-7 in their game 1 lineup had a wRC+ of 115 or higher which is absurd, especially considering the only players in the Braves’ game 1 lineup to have a 115 or higher wRC+ on the season were Freddie Freeman (135) and Austin Riley (135). As a team, the Braves had a 98 wRC+ in 2021 which was the 13th best in MLB. Up to this point in the Postseason, the Braves lineup hasn’t been all that far behind the Astros’. The Astros have a team .797 OPS while the Braves have a team .725 OPS. When you consider that the Braves have had to account for a pitcher occupying a spot in their lineup while the Astros haven’t (yet), the gap between the two teams offensively is closer than it appears this October. So far this Postseason, the Astros have scored 6.7 runs per game while the Braves have scored 4 runs per game.

Advantage: Astros

Pitching

For the World Series, the Braves are expected to have a three-man rotation of Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson. Morton, Fried, and Anderson combined to have a 3.30 ERA and 3.47 FIP across a collective 479.2 innings pitched. As for the Astros, they’re expected to have a four-man rotation of Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Jake Odorizzi. Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, and Odorizzi combined to have a 3.52 ERA and 4.02 FIP across a collective 501.2 innings pitched.

In 2021, the Braves bullpen had a 3.97 ERA and 4.08 FIP while the Astros bullpen had a 4.06 ERA and 4.21 FIP. The backend of the Braves bullpen features lefties Will Smith and Tyler Matzek to go along with right-hander Luke Jackson (who struggled in the NLCS). As for the Astros, bullpen ace Ryan Pressly and fellow right-handers Kendall Graveman and Ryne Stanek are usually featured in the late innings. Additionally, the Astros can call upon left-hander Brooks Raley when in need of getting some tough lefties out at the plate. In bullpen games or games in which an opener is used, expect the Braves to feature Drew Smyly and Jesse Chavez in bulk roles. As for the Astros, expect them to use Zack Greinke as an opener and Cristian Javier in a bulk role. So far this postseason, the Braves pitching staff has a 3.41 ERA and .228 batting average against while the Astros pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA and .245 batting average against.

Advantage: Braves

Defense

If you like seeing good defense, you’ll probably enjoy watching the World Series. The Astros as a team had the second most defensive runs saved (78) and outs above average (44) while the Braves had the eight most defensive runs saves (49) and 12th most outs above average (9) in MLB. Behind the plate, Martin Maldonado and Travis D’Arnoud are both above average defensively, but base runners have taken advantage of D’Arnoud stealing at an 84% success rate in 2021. On the flip side, base runners only had a 60% success rate when trying to swipe a bag when Maldonado was behind the plate in 2021. One thing that I’ll be keeping an eye on is how the Astros align their outfield once the series moves to Atlanta. If the Astros want to keep their best bats in the lineup, they’ll likely have Yordan Alvarez in left field, Kyle Tucker in center field, and Michael Brantley in right fielder.

Advantage: Astros

My prediction

Astros in 6. While the Braves pitching staff does have a slight advantage in my eyes, the gap between the Astros offense and Braves’ offense is too big of a difference. While I certainly think the Braves will be able to steal a couple of games because of their pitching, I don’t think their offense will be able to outhit the Astros’ to win the series. I think the Astros’ offense will show the world how great their offense is and the tone will be set by leadoff hitter Jose Altuve en route to a World Series MVP.

Of those names, Lance McCullers Jr. is the most noteworthy for this upcoming series. McCullers had a fantastic 2021 season in which he pitched 162.1 innings to a 3.16 ERA, which was the second-best among all AL qualified starting pitchers behind only Robbie Ray (2.84). Against the White Sox in the ALDS, McCullers Jr. pitched 10.2 innings across two starts (both gamers were won by the Astros) only allowing one earned run, nine hits, and three walks. Although he was pitching really well in his second start in game 4, McCullers Jr. was pulled from the game after four innings pitched due to “forearm tightness.” While it is being reported that he should be fine in the long run and has a chance to be available for the World Series should the Astros make it that far, the Astros deemed McCullers Jr. wasn’t healthy enough for the ALCS, so he was left off their active roster. This is obviously a huge blow for the Astros, as they lose their ace for their biggest series of the year.

If you follow me on Instagram @mlbzone_, you probably know that I picked against the Red Sox in both the Wild Card and Division Series. They’ve certainly made me look foolish and have played like one of the best teams in baseball over those two series. As for the Astros, I was spot on in predicting them to beat the White Sox in four games.

This season, the Red Sox lineup had the sixth-best (107) wRC+ among all teams while the Astros had the best (116). Both lineups are absolutely loaded, so it’s been no surprise seeing the Red Sox score 7 runs per game and the Astros score 7.75 runs per game this Postseason. Although the runs per game each team has scored may seem high or even unsustainable, I wouldn’t be surprised if neither offense slows down this series. While both offenses are great, the Astros’ lineup holds an advantage.

Although both are not great by any means, the Red Sox and Astros have capable pitching staffs. Although I’m not 100% sure how Alex Cora or Dusty Baker will manage their pitching staffs, I’m confident that Boston will use Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, and Eduardo Rodriguez as starters while Houston will use Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy as starters. The unknowns, which will be knowns soon, are how the Red Sox will use Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta, who the Astros will use to replace McCullers Jr, in their rotation, and if either team will go with any bullpen games. With McCullers Jr. out for Houston, I give the Red Sox an edge on the starting pitching front.

In their bullpens, each team has a relief ace, but some question marks elsewhere. As put on full display in game 4 of the ALDS against the Rays, there has been nobody better than Garrett Whitlock in the Red Sox bullpen. In addition to Whitlock, the Red Sox bullpen heavily relies on Hansel Robles, Adam Ottavino, Josh Taylor, and maybe for this series Tanner Houck and/or Nick Pivetta. While Whitlock had a great 2021 season, Ryan Pressly had an even better one. Pressly 2.4 fWAR was the third-best among all qualified relievers this year behind only Liam Hendriks and Josh Hader. When Pressly isn’t given the ball out of the bullpen, the Astros will typically call upon Kendall Graveman, Ryne Stanek, and maybe for this series Zack Greinke and/or Jake Odorizzi. In terms of comparing their bullpens, I don’t think either team has much of an advantage so I’ll call it a push.

My prediction:

Astros in 6. These are two of the best offenses in the league going up against pitching staffs that rank around the tenth best in the Majors respectively. With that being said, I think this is going to be an amazing series if you love seeing runs score. In the end, I think this series will come down to whoever can slug their way to wins, and I see the Astros being the better team at the plate. Additionally, the Astros went 5-2 against the Red Sox outscoring them 42-25 head-to-head this season. While a lot has changed since these two teams last faced off in June, the Astros still have a better lineup, and I don’t think the Red Sox pitching staff gives them much of an advantage.

The Astros acquire RHP Yimi García in exchange for RHP Austin Pruitt and OF Bryan De La Cruz

Grade: B

There aren’t multiple components or moving parts in this trade like we see in the other two; just a rebuilding club moving a solid relief arm in exchange for young outfield depth and another arm. García, 30, is a 7 year veteran on an expiring contract that has posted a 3.61 ERA, 3.70 SIERA, and 4.00 FIP over 42.1 innings this year. He’s nothing to write home about, but he’s a reliable middle relief guy for a team that desperately needs a reliable middle relief guy.

As one might expect, the Marlins’ return also isn’t anything to write home about. De La Cruz, 24, profiles as a 4th outfielder with solid defense and a developing bat. He never had a clear path to the majors, as the Astros boast a deep outfield group under team control. This group is led by Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, and Jake Meyers, with guys like Michael Brantley here to hold down a spot for the short term. If the Astros were to hold onto De La Cruz, he would’ve reached Rule 5 draft eligibility in December. Considering the Astros were unlikely to protect him based on the plethora of outfield talent they have on their roster, it’s a strong possibility that a team would’ve pulled him out of the Astros’ system after the strong year he’s had in AAA this year. Pruitt, 31, was traded from the Astros to the Rays in 2020 in exchange for RHP Peyton Batterfield and OF Cal Stevenson. The Astros hoped to revert him back to his role as a back end starter/long relief that he held in Tampa. They didn’t really give him a chance, and they DFA’d him after only throwing 3 innings for the team before trading him to Miami. He’s under team control through the 2024 season, where I presume he’ll serve as an innings eater for Miami, health permitting. 

I give this trade a B for the Astros because GarcÍa is on an expiring contract, and I feel like they could’ve gotten a little more value for De La Cruz and Pruitt.

 The Astros acquire RHP Phil Maton and C Yanier Diaz from the Indians in exchange for OF Myles Straw.

Grade: B-

Minutes before the deadline, the Astros shocked everyone and shipped off their starting center fielder to Cleveland in exchange for relief pitching help and a young catcher. Straw, 26, appeared in 98 games for the Astros, and slashed a solid .262/.339/.326 with a .288 xwOBA and a 94 wRC+. Straw’s value doesn’t come from his bat, however. Through 994 innings in CF this season, Straw has posted an outstanding 9 Outs Above Average, which places him in the 98th percentile for OAA in the major leagues. In addition to his elite defense, Straw has swiped 21 bases, and has put up an elite 4.1 BsR this season. Needless to say, Straw brings a lot to the table, and he’s under team control through the 2025 season; safe to say there’s definitely a lot of value there.

For the Astros’ side of things, they received some solid value as well. Maton, 28, is a right-handed reliever that’s under team control through the 2023 season. On the surface, he’s posted a less than ideal 4.35 ERA in 49.2  innings this season, but there’s more to Maton than what meets the eye. His peripherals for this season read as follows: 12.50 K/9, 3.39 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, and a stellar 3.24 SIERA. Something else to note is that Maton has posted a 2.29 ERA with solid peripherals since the start of July, which directly follows the late-June foreign substance crackdown, so he’s not one of those guys that found all of his success from foreign substances. The Astros also acquired 24 year old catcher Yanier Diaz in the deal. Diaz possesses a plus arm, plus power, and a good knack for contact; poor plate discipline will limit his ceiling unless he takes a more patient approach, however.

With this trade in particular, there’s more to it than just the pieces involved. With Straw being moved, it opened up a space for the Astros’ Jake Meyers, a 25 year old OF that slashed .343./.408/.598 in 68 games in AAA this season. In his first action in the majors, he’s picked up where he’s left off. In 11 games so far, he’s slashed .333/.400/.630 with a 185 wRC+ and a .383 xwOBA. Along with his superb offense, Meyers offers elite speed (29.2 ft/sec, 96th percentile), and elite defense (Already has 1 OAA and 3% SRA). This is all great and promising, but you have to take all of these numbers with a grain of salt considering it’s quite literally been 11 games. Regardless, it’s always fun to project and get excited after a fast start.

I gave this trade a B- because I feel like the Astros could’ve gotten more value for Straw. 26 year old CFs with elite defense/baserunning and serviceable hitting don’t grow on trees, especially those with 4 years of team control left. I do believe that this trade improved the roster because Maton is an upgrade over Bielak and Abreu, and because it gives Meyers a chance to play.

The Astros acquire RHPs Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero from the Mariners in exchange for INF Abraham Toro and RHP Joe Smith.

Grade: B+

One day after blowing a 7-0 lead to the Mariners in one of the most crushing losses of the season, the Astros turned around and traded for the Mariners’ shutdown closer, along with righty reliever Rafael Montero. In exchange, Seattle received RHP Joe Smith and INF Abraham Toro, a true third baseman who can also dabble as a utility man. Toro, 24, has major league experience at 2B, 3B, and 1B. His 2B defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he grades as a plus defender at third and an average defender at first. His versatility is nice, but Toro also provides solid value with his bat. Although Toro never reached his full offensive potential as an Astro, he’s been phenomenal for Seattle since the trade. Since the deal, Toro is slashing .319/.410/.514 with a 161 wRC+, even though he’s cooled off immensely over the last week. Regardless, Toro projects to be the Mariners third baseman of the future with Kyle Seager likely departing this offseason, and with Toro being under team control through the 2025 season. Joe Smith was essentially just a throw-in who was on the verge of being DFA’d due to his poor results this season. His salary happened to match Montero’s, so the teams just made the swap.

As you can see, the Astros paid a steep price to bolster their bullpen. But boy, did they desperately need to bolster their bullpen. Kendall Graveman, 30, has completely revamped his career in his contract year after transitioning from a starter to a reliever this season. In 41 innings, Graveman has posted a stellar 0.88 ERA, 9.66 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, and 2.53 SIERA this season. Graveman provides the bullpen another much needed lockdown presence next to closer Ryan Pressly. Graveman’s looming free agency complicates his trade value, but he’ll still provide immense bullpen help from this point on through October, and an extension is always a possibility. Along with Graveman, the Astros acquired Rafael Montero, a 30 year old reliever. His results this year have been pretty terrible (6.39 ERA in 49.1 innings), but his underlying metrics tell a different story (3.86 FIP, 3.52 xERA, and 4.05 SIERA). His Baseball Savant page this year also has a lot to like:

One other thing to note is that the Mariners’ defense posted a -5 OAA behind Montero this year, which is just horrifically unlucky. Montero’s “pitch to weak contact” approach will find much more success in Houston, considering the Astros as a team lead all of baseball with 31 Outs Above Average this season. This makes a great segue to my next point; he already has found success in Houston. In his first 6 innings as an Astro, Montero hasn’t allowed a run. His underlying metrics have also slightly improved from his tenure as a Mariner; he’s posted a 2.51 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, and a 3.84 xERA. It’s subtle, but improvement is improvement. If Montero stays on this track, he could serve as a second Cristian Javier in the bullpen, which would be a dream scenario for the Astros. Unfortunately for Montero and the Astros, he’s been sidelined with a shoulder injury, and it’s unclear when he’ll be back.

I gave this trade a B+ because I really like the pieces involved for each side. Graveman is the headliner with the big fastball that’ll draw eyes, but Montero is also a sneaky good reliever that had a lot of success as an Astro before his injury. The reason why this trade isn’t an A for Houston is due to the fact that I really like Toro too. Sure, he was blocked as the utility guy until 2023 when Aledmys Diaz may (potentially) leave in free agency, but he’s still very valuable nonetheless.

To round it all up, the Astros didn’t pull off any blockbusters, but they did what they had to do in order to solidify the roster’s weakest area; the bullpen. And it worked. Since the deadline, the Astros bullpen as a whole leads the league with a phenomenal 3.06 SIERA, while they’re also top four in ERA (2.31). This is a very far cry from the 4.14 ERA, 4.00 SIERA bullpen the Astros had prior to the deadline. So far, James Click looks like a genius. We won’t know for sure how effective the Astros’ trade deadline was until after the season is over, but right now I’d say that I’m satisfied with the moves that Click made. The trades might not have been the most efficient, but it’s working, so I won’t question it. Here’s to a successful last few months without the weekly bullpen collapses that we’ve become accustomed to.

*All stats and rankings used in this post were prior to games played on 8/22

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Although the Dodgers have been the second-place team in the NL West behind the Giants for the majority of the season, they are now just 2.5 games back of first place and are projected by Fangraphs to narrowly win the division. The Dodgers bolstered their already insanely talented team by acquiring Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Danny Duffy at the trade deadline. Despite numerous injuries to key players such as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw, and Dustin May, the Dodgers have the third-best team wRC+ (109), seventh-best xwOBA (.326), best xFIP (3.71), and best SIERA (3.67) in all of Major League Baseball. If healthy, the Dodgers’ Postseason rotation will consist of Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urias. To go along with their star-studded rotation, the Dodgers lineup should be at full strength once Mookie Betts returns from the IL.

2. Houston Astros

Fresh off their third appearance in the American League Championship Series in four years, the Astros have been one of the best teams in all of Major League Baseball again in 2021. Although they are 10-10 over their last 20 games, the Astros are 3.5 games ahead of the Oakland A’s for the AL West lead and currently hold the second-best record in the American League behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite star third baseman Alex Bregman missing nearly half the season, The Astros have had the best offense in all of Major League Baseball this season ranking first in wRC+ (119) and xwOBA (.332). Although their pitching staff hasn’t been elite like their offense, the Astros have been above average on the mound sporting the 12th-best xFIP (4.12) and SIERA (4.05). If healthy, the Astros’ postseason rotation will consist of Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Zack Greinke, and Luis Garcia.

3. New York Yankees

Despite having a 41-40 record over their first 81 games, the Yankees are now 20 games over .500 with a 72-52 record. Although some people thought the Yankees season was over at the trade deadline and that they should’ve sold, the exact opposite happened. At the trade deadline, the Yankees made two blockbuster trades to acquire Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. The Yankees are now in possession of the first AL Wild Card spot and sit 4.5 games behind the Rays for the AL East lead. Even though it is more likely than not that the Yankees will have to play in the Wild Card game, I believe Gerrit Cole gives them a great chance to win that game, and the overall talent of the Yankees team can lead them to the World Series. Despite injuries and COVID cases to many players in their lineup such as Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Aaron Hicks, the Yankees have the 11th-best wRC+ (102) and the ninth-best xwOBA (.325) in Major League Baseball this season. Even with Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery testing positive for COVID and Corey Kluber, Domingo German, and Luis Severino dealing with injuries, the Yankees pitching staff ranks eighth-best in xFIP (4.02) and sixth-best in SIERA (3.82). If healthy, the Yankees’ Postseason rotation will consist of Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, and either Corey Kluber, Luis Severino, or Nestor Cortes Jr. depending on what the organization chooses to do and the health of the players.

4. Milwaukee Brewers

Despite the Cardinals being the preseason betting favorite to win the NL Central, the Brewers have easily been the best team in the division. Currently, the Brewers have a 7.5 game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for first place in the NL Central and have the third-best record in the National League at 76-49. The Brewers lineup has been nothing special this season, ranking just 16th-best in wRC+ (93) and 19th-best in xwOBA (.309) at the plate this season. If Christian Yelich’s bat can heat up over the last month+ of the season, the Brewers lineup will, however, become much more difficult to face come October. What makes the Brewers so good (and scary in the Postseason) is their elite pitching. The Brewers pitching staff has the second-best xFIP (3.77) and fourth-best SIERA (3.81) on the mound this season. If healthy, the Brewers’ Postseason rotation will consist of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and likely Brett Anderson.

5. Chicago White Sox

Although I originally didn’t think the White Sox would win the AL Central before the season, they have proved me wrong. The White Sox currently lead the second-place Cleveland Indians by 10.0 games and have the fourth-best record in the American League. What makes the White Sox so dominant is that they’re elite at the plate and on the mound. Even though the White Sox’s best hitter, Eloy Jimenez, has missed most of the season and key players Yasmani Grandal and Luis Robert have both missed significant time, the White Sox have the fourth-best wRC+ (109) and 14th best xwOBA (.317) in all of Major League Baseball. The White Sox pitching staff has been just as (or even more) impressive this season as they rank third-best in xFIP (3.86) and second-best in SIERA (3.71). If healthy, the White Sox’s postseason rotation will consist of Carlos Rodon, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease. If the White Sox starters can keep the team in the game or on top after six innings, the White Sox will be in a great position to win due to their stacked bullpen. Even though their bullpen was already elite and headlined by Liam Hendriks, the White Sox traded for former Cubs bullpen studs Ryan Tepera and Craig Kimbrel to add to their star-studded bullpen which also consists of Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Aaron Bummer.

6. Tampa Bay Rays

Although the Yankees looked like clear AL East favorites before the season and still pose a threat to them now, the Rays lead the division and have the best record in the American League. To improve their lineup, the Rays made a big in-season trade (which is rare for them) by acquiring Nelson Cruz, but he’s gotten off to a slow start with the team. On the season, the Rays lineup has the fifth-best wRC+ (107) and 18th best xwOBA (.309). In addition to their rock-solid lineup, the Rays’ pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball ranking sixth-best in xFIP (3.93) and third-best in SIERA (3.78). Beyond what is quantifiable, Kevin Cash and his coaching staff are among the best (if not the best) in all of baseball, which is crucial come October. If healthy, the Rays’ Postseason rotation will consist of Shane McClanahan, Chris Archer, and likely openers or some combination of Luis Patiño, Michael Wacha, and Ryan Yarbrough.

7. San Francisco Giants

Although they have had the best record in all of Major League Baseball throughout most of the regular season, the Dodgers are quickly gaining ground in the NL West which poses the threat that the Giants could be in danger of getting eliminated after one game in the Wild Card Game. For the record, if the Giants do win the NL West, I’d likely have them within the top five of this list, but I do expect the Dodgers to narrowly win the division so I’ve ranked both teams under that assumption. The main reason why the Giants have surprised most baseball fans this season is that their offense has been great. On the season, the Giants rank sixth-best in wRC+ (106) and 12th-best in xwOBA (.321). What makes the Giants a great offensive team is their ability to mix and match by platooning players. The Giants are one of six teams (Giants, Astros, White Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and A’s) this season to have a top 10 wRC+ against both righties and lefties. The Giants elite pitching has also come as a pleasant surprise. On the season, Giants hurlers rank fourth-best in xFIP (3.91) and eight-best in SIERA (3.86). If healthy, the Giants’ Postseason rotation will consist of Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood or Johnny Cueto.

8. Atlanta Braves

Although it looked like the New York Mets were the clear NL East favorites throughout most of the regular season, they have fallen off a cliff as of late and the Braves have taken full advantage. Over their last 20 games, the Braves are 16-4 which has propelled them to 5.5 games ahead of the second place Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East lead. Although Ronald Acuña Jr. has missed the last month and will be out for the foreseeable future, the Braves offense has survived ranking 14th-best in wRC+ (100) and fifth-best in xwOBA (.328). Although their pitching staff hasn’t been great this season, ranking 11th-best in xFIP (4.11) and 13th-best in SIERA (4.09), they’ve held their own and should only get better considering everyone on their starting pitching staff besides Charlie Morton has seen time on the injured list. If healthy, the Braves’ Postseason rotation will consist of Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and Huascar Ynoa.

9. Boston Red Sox

Although they were in first place of the AL East for most of the season, the Red Sox have fallen into a skid which has seen them drop down into third place, but they are still well within reach of a Postseason spot. The Red Sox offense has predictably been one of the best in the Majors this season ranking seventh-best in wRC+ (105) and fourth-best in xwOBA (.329). The Red Sox pitching staff has also been pretty good this season, especially considering Chris Sale has only pitched in two games and Tanner Houck has only pitched in seven games this season, ranking 10th-best in xFIP (4.09) and 11th-best in SIERA (4.02). Although they will likely be playing in the Wild Card game if they do make the Postseason, there aren’t many pitchers I’d rather have than Chris Sale on the mound and the Red Sox lineup is more than capable of slugging their way to a victory and possibly further into the Postseason. If healthy, the Red Sox’s Postseason rotation will consist of Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tanner Houck.

10. Cincinnati Reds

Although it will be a close race between the Reds and Padres for the last NL Wild Card spot, I believe the Reds will earn the final NL Postseason spot. While I think that the Padres are the better overall team, the Reds’ rest of season strength of schedule is much more favorable than that of the Padres which is why I think the Reds will narrowly get into the Postseason. The Reds’ offense this season has been quite the big red machine ranking ninth-best in wRC+ (104) and eight-best in xwOBA (.326). The Reds’ pitching staff hasn’t been nearly as good as their offense, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both xFIP (17th best with 4.28) and SIERA (18th best with 4.24). Although their pitching hasn’t been as good as many expected, the Reds certainly have the talent to turn it around over the last month+ of the season and to pitch well in a Postseason series. If healthy, the Reds’ Postseason rotation will consist of Luis Castillo, Wade Miley, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle.

Honorable Mentions: Oakland A’s and San Diego Padres

I could definitely see both of these teams making it into the Postseason, I just don’t think they will.

Without a doubt, the biggest surprise of the Astros season has been the top-tier production the team has seen from their homegrown center fielders, Chas McCormick and Myles Straw. So far in 2021, the Astros have garnered 2.9 WAR from their center fielders, which is third in all of baseball behind Cedric Mullins with the Orioles, and Byron Buxton and Max Kepler with the Twins. How did the Astros pull this off? 

The answer is simple: defense. Center field is arguably the second most important defensive position on the field, behind catcher and probably tied with shortstop, so it really pays off to have good defenders there. Individually, Straw and McCormick both have 6 defensive Outs Above Average (OAA), which puts them both in a tie for fourth among all outfielders in the MLB, behind only Manuel Margot and Brett Phillips of the Rays, and Cedric Mullins of the Orioles. This elite range certainly had to be something that GM James Click thought of when he was constructing this outfield. Rather than go off and spend big money on free agent center fielders, Click trusted his two speedsters to patrol the outfield grounds for the team. It follows a philosophy that was first championed by the 2015 Royals; play to the ballpark. The Royals’ home, Kauffman Stadium, is known for its huge outfield. Knowing this, the Royals went out of their way to pick up glove-first outfielders and/or speedsters such as Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and 8-time Gold Glove Award winner Alex Gordon. As a result, these players led them to a World Series championship in 2015. Similarly, the Astros home stadium of Minute Maid Park is known for its extremely short left field fence, the Crawford Boxes, which has allowed the Astros to play bat-first, below average sprint speed outfielders such as Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez in left field due to the fact that they don’t have to cover much ground. One factor that most people overlook is how huge the Astros center field is, primarily due to the fact that the Crawford Boxes give way to a massive alley in left-center field. Thus, it made sense to go with some glove-first guys to cover ground in center, rather than leave outs on the table by taking a more offensive-minded approach with a free agent center fielder. 

Speaking of offense from the center field position, McCormick and Straw have been pretty good there as well. Their collective 106 wRC+ over 515 plate appearances would rank 8th among qualified CFs, which is a very respectable number for a couple of glove-first outfielders that have collectively accumulated 12 OAA up to this point. 

Specifically talking from an offensive standpoint, McCormick has really stood out so far. Straw still deserves credit for the phenomenal stretch he’s been on these last 2 months, and for his very respectable 95 wRC+ and .342 OBP on the season, but McCormick has been on another level. So far this season, over 59 games and 169 PAs, he’s posted a 118 wRC+, .337 wOBA, 1.0 WAR, and 10 HR, which is unheard of from a fourth outfielder. Although there are signs of potential regression (32 K% and .310 xwOBA), I actually think that McCormick’s results and plate discipline will improve as he gets more and more action against big league pitching.

To conclude, McCormick and Straw have both proved themselves as legitimate major league assets due to their high defensive floor, and with their notable offensive performance this season. Both are key to the future success of the team due to the fact that they’re both only 26, and they both have multiple years of team control left (Straw is a FA in 2026, McCormick in 2027). Whether they impact the team’s future as trade chips or as rostered players is yet to be seen. One thing is for sure: the Astros have without a doubt solved their center field problem, which was a position that looked like a black hole coming into the season. Currently, they possess one of the strongest center field tandems in the league, and they aren’t slowing down yet.

Record and Divisional Standing:

Michael:

1st in AL West, 94-68W/L

94 wins may seem a little steep, but here’s my reasoning: Myles Straw will fill in for Springer and be a solid 2-3 WAR player. Brantley will be back, and although he will regress, he will still be a very good hitter. New bullpen and rotation acquisitions Pedro Baez, Ryne Stanek, Jake Odorizzi, and Steve Cishek will help fill the holes in our pitching staff. FA signing Jason Castro will form an excellent platoon with Martin Maldonado. Most importantly, Carlos Correa will play over 120 games, which we really need. As for the pitching, Valdez, McCullers, and Greinke will all be 3 or above WAR pitchers. It’s bold, and also quite unrealistic. But that’s my record prediction. As for the division, the A’s will regress after losing Semien, Hendriks, and La Stella, while the Angels will improve after revamping their pitching staff with additions like Iglesias and Quintana, but it won’t be enough to challenge the Astros.

Nolan:

1st in AL West, 95-67W/L

95 wins is definitely possible for the 2021 Astros. The Astros lost fan favorite George Springer, as well as Josh Reddick, and Roberto Osuna among others. However they retained Michael Brantley and added Ryne Stanek, Jason Castro, Jake Odorizzi, and Pedro Baez. Yordan Alvarez and Joe Smith return this year after injuries and personal reasons kept them off the field last year. 

MVP

Michael:

Alex Bregman will be the Astros MVP this season. He’s currently the best player on the roster, and he’s been the definition of value since 2018. He will have another 150 or above wRC+ season with an fWAR ranging anywhere from 6.5-8.

Nolan:

The 2021 Astros MVP will be Alex Bregman. Having added 28 pounds during the offseason, the best 3B in the league looks to have another 2019 like season with an fWAR above 6. Bregman had a slight down year in 2020 while dealing with hamstring issues with a 123 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR.

Cy Young:

Michael:

Framber Valdez was my pick before his injury, but with his return timetable unknown, I’ll go with Lance McCullers. McCullers should receive a heavier workload this season now that he isn’t directly coming off of Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all of 2019. Barring injury, he should have a successful regular season, and set himself apart as the ace of this team.

Nolan:

Although reports of his injury have surfaced, I still believe Framber Valdez will be the Astros Cy Young in 2021. Framber broke out in 2020 posting a 2.85 FIP and 3.23 SIERA as well as a 2.0 fWAR. Framber was excellent in the postseason with a 1.88 ERA, 3.28 SIERA, and 3.08 xFIP.

Breakout Player 

Michael: 

Brooks Raley. He and Ryan Pressly were tied for the team lead with a 3.00 SIERA last year. With Blake Taylor being the only other LHP in our bullpen, I expect Raley to receive a lot of matchup and high leverage situations next season, in which he will thrive.

Nolan:     

Ryne Stanek is my pick to be the Astros breakout player in 2021. Ryne struggled mightily in 2020 sporting a 7.29 FIP and 5.40 SIERA. However he’s shown great potential in the past with a 3.58 SIERA in his two full years with the TB Rays.

Biggest Disappointment 

Michael:

Martin Maldonado. He had a pretty good offensive season in 2020, with a 110 wRC+ and a .326 wOBA, but he’s due for regression, as shown by his poor offensive performance in the past, and his .307 xwOBA in 2020, which shows he got fairly lucky. I do not think he should be our starting catcher, and I think he will be the most disappointing player on the Astros next season.

Nolan:

Enoli Parades. Enoli seemingly showed up out of nowhere last year making the opening day roster and surprising many with his regular season performance. However, I believe he is due for regression. His fastball got destroyed last year, with an opponent xwOBA similar to that of Springer and Yordan’s 2019 offensive xwOBA. Although his slider, curveball, and change up were all very good, I think his lack of an effective primary pitch will cause him to regress.

ROTY

Michael:

Luis Garcia, Chas McCormick, Bryan Abreu, and Forrest Whitley are the four guys with the best shot to accumulate the most playing time in this rookie class. Whitley is the most talented, but he’s also the least likely to make the opening day roster due to injury rehab. Abreu also doesn’t have a great chance to make the opening day roster, but his upside is too good to ignore. McCormick and Garcia are essentially locks to make the OD roster unless Garcia has a rough Spring Training. As for McCormick, he’s looking like our fourth outfielder with a shot at the CF starting job. Garcia, on the other hand, is shaping out to be a bulk reliever or depth starter. Of all these guys, I think McCormick is in the best situation, so he has my vote for ROTY.

Nolan:

Luis Garcia is my pick for ROTY. Garcia had a short stint in the majors last year pitching 12.1 Innings with a 2.92 ERA and 4.25 FIP. Garcia also pitched once in the ALCS throwing 2 innings giving up no runs on no hits with 2 walks. If Garcia can follow up in 2021 lowering his FIP he could easily be the Astros ROTY.

Losing George Springer is definitely not an ideal situation, because the Astros don’t have any center field prospects, and the free-agent market at that position isvery thin after Springer. The Astros outfield farm system is weak, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have any options to replace George Springer and/or Michael Brantley.

Enter Pedro Leon. The 22 year old Cuban superstar, ranked as the number 6 overall international prospect in this upcoming signing period, has reached an agreement to sign with the Astros once the international signing period begins in January. Leon has done nothing but rake while playing in the Cuban league. Across 2 years of play, he’s slashed .359/.420/.678. Scouts also say he has potential to have 5 above average tools. Obviously, that’s not all going to translate the MLB, however. He is scouted as “Major League ready”, but he’s more than likely to get a stint in AAA or AA to begin the season to see where he’s at. The only scenario that I can see him making the Opening Day roster is if Houston is astonishingly low on outfield depth, which is where they’ll be if James Click stands pat this winter.

Leon is one option. The other outfielders in Houston’s system that may be ready for 2021 include Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw, Chas McCormick, Ronnie Dawson, Taylor Jones*, Yordan Alvarez*, and Aledmys Diaz* (*primary position is infield/DH). That’s not a great list outside of Tucker, who has the RF spot locked up. As for the others, only Myles Straw is projected to have an fWAR over 1 next season, according to fangraphs.com. Below is a graphic from the Fangraphs website that projects the Astros outfielder’s fWAR for the 2021 season.

So yeah… that’s pretty ugly. Starting with center field, I’m perfectly fine with platooning Straw, Dawson, and McCormick, with each getting decent playing time. I feel like one of them is bound to break out and have a decent year. If Straw can return to his 2019 form, where he put up a 105 wRC+ in 56 games with great defense and baserunning that put him on track to be a 3-4 fWAR player in a full year, we’ve filled that hole. Even if Straw can only put up a 91 wRC+ and a 1.4 fWAR as Fangraphs projects, that wouldn’t be a terrible situation. If the Astros aren’t confident in any of their in-house names, they can always go after Jackie Bradley Jr. or Kevin Pillar on the free-agent market. As for left field, it gets a little rough. On the upside, the corner outfield FA class is pretty decent; highlighted by names like Marcell Ozuna, former Astro Robbie Grossman, Joc Pederson, and obviously Brantley. There are some decent replacements there. Pairing Ozuna with the Crawford Boxes would be game-changing, but unrealistic due to the Astros having the DH spot locked up with Alvarez. Grossman, who had a career year in the shortened season, put up a 126 wRC+ while leading AL left fielders in OAA. He would certainly be a great fallback option if the Astros aren’t able to retain Brantley or acquire Ozuna.

In conclusion, there’s going to be change. The George Springer era in Houston has likely come to a close, but it’s time to look ahead. The Astros definitely don’t have the same lethal outfield they sported for the last few years, but they have potential with their young guys. Don’t forget that the Astros still have what many consider to be the best pure infield in the league, and they have a very serviceable rotation with Valdez, McCullers, Greinke, Urquidy, Javier, and whoever they sign on the open market. Their relief group is headlined by shutdown close Ryan Pressly, as well as other names such as Paredes, Scrubb, Taylor, and Raley that all played well this season. One thing that’s clear is that the Astros will go as far as their young talent will take them. Whether that’s just a playoff berth, another ALCS appearance, or a World Series championship is yet to be seen. No matter what happens to them in free agency, the Astros are a team to keep an eye on going forward.