Happ, now 38, has been solid throughout his career with a 3.98 ERA in 12 full seasons in the MLB. Over the past couple years, the velocity on his fastball and slider has been slightly decreasing, and increasing on his curveball and changeup. Neither of those are great to see but nothing to worry about.

Since 2018, Happ has a 4.15 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, and a 4.20 SIERA. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters, but he doesn’t strike many out either. Happ has an 8.69 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 3.26 K/BB, and 16.2 K-BB% since 2018. He does give up a lot of homeruns though. Happ has a 1.60 HR/9 over the last three seasons, which could be partly attributed to him pitching at Yankee Stadium. His HR/9 in Toronto before going to the Yankees was 1.04, and 1.60 after going to the Yankees. He pitched 388.1 innings in those three seasons.

Happ’s pitch arsenal consists of five pitches: 4-seam fastball (thrown 44.3% of the time in 2020), sinker (22%), slider (18.7%), changeup (13.9%), and a curveball (1.1%). His fastball and sinker have been good throughout his whole career. He throws a fastball with above average movement in the upper part of the zone with a 22.1% Whiff%. His sinker also has above average movement with a 21.8% Whiff%. His slider has below average movement but has a 31.7% Whiff%. He has a solid changeup with a 16.1% Whiff%. His curveball is pretty average but isn’t thrown a whole lot. His curveball had a 25.0% Whiff%. Happ doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. Over the last three seasons he produced a 40.5% GB% and a 35.6% FB%.

There is likely something the Twins see in Happ that most fans don’t see. I don’t think they’d pay him $8 million if they didn’t. I like the signing because the Twins are getting a solid left-handed 4th/5th starter in Happ. It’s a solid depth signing for the Twins. I think there will be another move for another starting pitcher like James Paxton, Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, or someone else. Now that the market is pretty active, I think the Twins will start to make more moves.

Current Twins Rotation:

1. Kenta Maeda
2. Jose Berrios
3. Michael Pineda
4. J.A. Happ
5. Randy Dobnak

In 2018-19, Rogers was one of the best relievers in baseball. In those two seasons, he produced a 2.62 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 2.89 xFIP, and a 2.71 SIERA in 137.1 innings pitched. Among qualified relievers during that time, Rogers ranked 16th in ERA, 5th in FIP, 9th in xFIP, and 8th in SIERA. Rogers also had a 10.81 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, 6.11 K/BB, and a 4.0 fWAR. Rogers ranked 28th in K/9, 5th in BB/9, 4th in K/BB, and 4th in fWAR. By looking at these stats, it’s very clear that Taylor Rogers was a top-10 reliever in baseball going into 2020.

In 2020, Rogers regressed a little bit, but it wasn’t as much as you may have thought. His peripherals were a lot better than his ERA suggested. Rogers posted a 4.05 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, and a 3.22 SIERA in 20.0 innings pitched. Among qualified relievers for 2020, Rogers ranked 115th in ERA, 38th in FIP, 27th in xFIP, and 37th in SIERA. Rogers also had a 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 6.00 K/BB, and a 0.5 fWAR. He ranked 59th in K/9, 17th in BB/9, 14th in K/BB, and 30th in fWAR. Obviously this isn’t as good as 2018-19, but it’s still pretty good.

Now when you see all three seasons combined, it’ll be a lot easier to understand why Rogers is still a very good reliever. Since 2018, Rogers has produced a 2.80 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 2.94 xFIP, and a 2.78 SIERA in 157.1 innings pitched. Among qualified relievers, he ranks 22nd in ERA, 6th in FIP, 8th in xFIP, and 10th in SIERA. Looking at some of his other stats, he produced a 10.81 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, 6.10 K/BB, and a 4.5 fWAR. He ranks 35th in K/9, 9th in BB/9, 3rd in K/BB, and 4th in fWAR. Looking at the stats since 2018, it’s clear that Taylor Rogers is at least a borderline top-10 reliever in baseball.

I definitely expect Rogers to bounceback in 2021 and return close to his 2018-19 self who was one of the most dominant closers in baseball.

Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak have been great for the Twins so far in 2020, but apart from them the rotation has been very shaky. Jose Berrios has only had one really good start, but otherwise has been inconsistent and hasn’t been great yet. Rich Hill came back from the his injury and looked great until the third inning. I’d expect him to return to how he pitched his first start soon. Homer Bailey was moved to the 45-day IL, and will be eligible to return September 13. Jake Odorizzi landed on the 10-day IL with a chest contusion after taking a comebacker off of his upper body. He will be eligible to return August 31.

It’s still early in the season but the Twins had this same problem last year and they ended getting swept in the ALDS partly because their starters weren’t very good. It would be nice to have a new starter join the rotation and lead or help lead it. There would definitely be a lot more confidence if they had more reliable help. I’ll discuss two trade candidates and a minor league option for the Twins.

Trevor Bauer

Trevor Bauer has gotten off to a great start this season. In 26.1 innings pitched (4 starts), he has a 0.68 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 2.60 xFIP, and a 2.36 SIERA. He is an impending free agent but the Twins are in need of help and would likely try to re-sign him if he did good enough. Right now it seems like the Reds a reluctant to trading him but it could change based on how they perform until the deadline.

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn spent some time with the Twins in 2018 before being traded to the Yankees. He’s currently with the Rangers and has also gotten off to a good start. In 39.1 innings pitched (6 starts), he has a 1.37 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 4.09 xFIP, and a 3.91 SIERA. He’s coming off of a career season in 2019 where he put up a 3.67 ERA and finished 5th in AL Cy Young voting. The Twins reportedly had interest in trading for him at the trade deadline in 2019. He would be a great addition to the Twins, and he has a year left on his contract after this season.

Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran is the Twins #5 prospect and #2 pitching prospect. He could be a short-term replacement until Michael Pineda returns from suspension in early September, unless he were to perform extremely well of course. Duran made 15 starts in Advanced-A ball in 2019 where he had a 3.23 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and a 2.77 xFIP in 78.0 innings pitched. He made 7 starts in Double-A ball where he had a 4.86 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and a 2.56 xFIP in 37.0 innings pitched. Duran’s fastball sits in the upper 90s and often times reaches 100 MPH. He also has a good splitter and curveball. It would be nice to see one of the top prospects come up and potentially help us.

2017-19 Stats

Kenta Maeda’s stats from 2017-19 are pretty good. They’re better than people give him credit for. In the past three seasons, Maeda posted a 3.35 xERA, 3.76 SIERA, 3.77 FIP, and a 3.79 xFIP. Those stats all tell how good he actually pitched. He underperformed his xERA by 0.68, which is great to see. His per-nines are also good. Maeda produced a 10.06 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 3.61 K/BB, and a 1.16 WHIP in 413.1 IP in 71 starts and 34 relief appearances.

Jose Berrios’s stats from 2017-19 are good too, but not as good. Berrios produced a 3.84 xERA, 4.11 SIERA, 3.87 FIP, and a 4.22 xFIP. Berrios overperformed his 3.80 ERA by 0.04. Moving onto his per-nines, they are pretty good. Berrios had a 8.96 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 3.35 K/BB, and a 1.20 WHIP in 538.1 IP in 89 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Maeda was better than Berrios in xERA, SIERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, K/BB, and WHIP. Berrios was better than Maeda in ERA, BB/9, and HR/9. Obviously there are more stats out there, but most of them also point to Maeda being the better pitcher. The only real reason one could say Berrios is better is because of the big difference in innings pitched, but Maeda makes up for that in the big difference in stats.

2019 Stats

2019 would matter a lot more than 2017 if you’re trying to compare who is better currently, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t exclude other seasons.

In 2019, Maeda posted a 4.04 ERA, 3.26 xERA, 4.06 SIERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 9.90 K/9, 2.99 B/9, 1.29 HR/9, 3.31 K/BB, and a 1.07 WHIP in 153.2 IP in 26 starts and 11 relief appearances.

In 2019, Berrios had a 3.68 ERA, 4.03 xERA, 4.28 SIERA, 3.85 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, 8.76 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9, 3.82 K/BB, and a 1.22 WHIP in 200.1 IP in 32 starts.

Once again, I do believe Berrios has more potential, and that he will be better soon, the stats prove that Maeda is the Twins best starter right now.

Colina has since tested negative, but must test negative again to return to the team. Sano and Astudillo are asymptomatic. Colina and Gordon tested positive at their homes, prior to leaving for Minneapolis. Sano and Astudillo tested positive during the intake process.

Miguel Sano will obviously be the biggest impact if any of them miss any time. He is likely going to be the starting first baseman. In 2019 he slashed .247/.346/.576 (.922) with a 137 wRC+ and a .378 wOBA. He also hit a career-high 34 home runs in 105 games.

Willians Astudillo was the other player with major league experience to test positive. He slashed .268/.299/.379 (.678) with a 76 wRC+ and a .288 wOBA in 58 games in 2019. He is a possible candidate to be the third string catcher for the Twins if they decide to go that route.

Edwar Colina is the Twins #16 prospect who went from Adv. A to AAA last season. In 2019, he produced a 2.96 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.60 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 97.1 IP across all three levels. He could’ve been a possible bullpen option at some point in the season if they needed a reliever.

Nick Gordon is a former 4th overall pick, and currently their #17 prospect, who has yet to make his MLB debut. The 24-year old slashed .298/.342/.459 (.801) with a 102 wRC+ and a .344 wOBA in 70 games in AAA last season. He has a solid chance of making the Twins 30-man Opening Day roster.

Hopefully these players will recover fast and return soon. If that doesn’t happen, the Twins have a lot of depth to work with.

Let’s say that Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Jhoan Duran, and/or maybe Jordan Balazovic get added to the 30-man roster. They get to spend some time in the MLB and make their highly anticipated Major League debuts. They could perform well enough, or another player or pitcher gets injured, and they could take a spot on the 28 or 26-man rosters.

I don’t think there’s a huge chance of the top prospects being on the roster for most or the whole season, but it’s possible. I think Kirilloff could even take over as the starting left fielder if he outperforms Eddie Rosario. Duran or Balazovic could take over as an end of the rotation starter if Homer Bailey falters or someone else gets injured or test positive for COVID-19.

Round 1, Pick 27

The Twins took first baseman Aaron Sabato out of the University of North Carolina with their first pick. I’m a big fan of this pick. Some scouts say he has the second most power in this draft, just behind Spencer Torkelson, who went first overall to the Tigers. He’s not that great of a fielder, which leads scouts to think he’ll be a designated hitter or first baseman in the MLB. Very below average speed, but that’s a common trait for first basemen/designated hitters. Almost all of Sabato’s value comes from his bat. He has the potential to reach the MLB decently fast, which means he could possibly replace Nelson Cruz if the Twins brought him back for a year or two.

Round 2, Pick 59

I thought this was an interesting pick for the Twins. I thought we were going to pick up a college pitcher like Clayton Beeter, but that wasn’t the case. Instead, the Twins took outfielder Alerick Soularie from the University of Tennessee. His bat can be good at times, but also inconsistent. Soularie has solid power, but not an overwhelming amount like Sabato has. Soularie isn’t terribly fast, so it hurts his defense in centerfield. He also doesn’t have the powerful profile of a corner outfielder. He has been working at second base a little bit though. Many believe he’ll move to second base in the long run.

Round 4, Pick 128

The Twins went with 17-year old pitcher Marco Raya from United South High School in Laredo, Texas with this pick. This is another pick I liked quite a bit. I’ve watched some of his stuff on video, and it’s not bad. He generates a lot of spin with his pitches. His fastball is average, but his slider and changeup are both above average pitches. I could definitely see him as an impactful back of the rotation starter or reliever for the Twins.

Round 5, Pick 158

The Twins went with another power hitter with this pick. Outfielder Kala’i Rosario from Waiakea High School in Hilo, Hawaii. Above average power, below average everything else besides arm strength. I am concerned about him possibly not being able to consistently hit enough to show his power, which sucks because it’s where most of his value comes from. This was a solid pick for the Twins in my opinion.

Overall, this was a decent draft for the Twins. Could’ve been better I thought, and there’s no reason to not trust what Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and scouting director Sean Johnson are doing. They’ve drafted pretty well since they took over in 2017, and I think this draft will turn out nicely.

Alex Kirilloff

Kirilloff, probably the most likely option, and my preference for a replacement, is the Twins #2 prospect. He had a good 2019 season with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA). He slashed .283/.343/.413 (.756 OPS). He hit 9 home runs, 18 doubles, 2 triples, and had 43 RBI. He posted a .347 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 7.1% BB%, and a 18.5% K% in 94 games (411 plate appearances).

Trevor Larnach

Larnach, probably the second best option for a replacement, is the Twins #3 prospect and had a great season with the Fort Myers Miracle (Adv. A) and Pensacola Blue Wahoos (AA). I’ll use his stats from AA to make this simpler. He slashed .295/.387/.455 (.842 OPS). He hit 7 home runs, 4 doubles and had 22 RBI. He produced a .387 wOBA, 148 wRC+, 12.2% BB%, and a 27.6% K% in 43 games (181 plate appearances).

Jake Cave

Cave will have more stats because he was in the MLB for most of the season. Cave had a decent 2019 season with the Twins, slashing .258/.351/.455 (.806 OPS). He hit 8 home runs, 11 doubles, 2 triples, and had 25 RBI. He produced a .343 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 9.2% BB%, 31.1% K%, and a 0.9 fWAR in 72 games (228 plate appearances). Defensively, he had a -2 DRS, -1.5 UZR, -2.8 UZR/150, and 2 OAA.

LaMonte Wade Jr.

Wade Jr., probably the least likely replacement of these four, will also have more stats because he spent some time in the MLB. Wade Jr. made a decent start to his career in the MLB with the Twins. He slashed .196/.348/.375 (.723 OPS). He hit 2 home runs, 2 doubles, 1 triple, and had 5 RBI. He produced a .320 wOBA, 98 wRC+, 15.9% BB%, 13% K%, and a -0.2 fWAR in 26 games (69 plate appearances). Defensively, he had a -1 DRS, -3.5 UZR, -39.9 UZR/150, and a -3 OAA.

I would guess that the main competition will be between Kirilloff and Larnach because they are younger, better, and have more potential than the other two, however that doesn’t mean that it isn’t impossible for the other two to possibly be short-term replacements.

Where do you see the Twins in five years?

I think it’s very possible that the Twins are still division contenders in 2025 with all the young talent this team has currently and in the farm system. Some players will be in the prime of their careers come 2025. I see no reason the Twins aren’t still contenders in five years.

What needs to happen for the Twins to beat the Yankees in the playoffs?

Pitching was a huge issue for the Twins in the 2019 ALDS. The Twins offense wasn’t performing like they should’ve, but the offense isn’t the problem. The pitching gave up far too many runs in the ALDS. I do think that the additions of Maeda and Hill will help this team a lot in the playoffs. Both are experienced and good in the playoffs.

Which Twins player will have the biggest breakout season?

I think there are several candidates to have a big breakout season for the Twins. Cave, Buxton, Adrianza, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak, Littell, and more are all candidates to have big breakout seasons. For hitters, I think Buxton will have the biggest breakout season. If he can play a full season, he is very capable of putting up a 5.0+ fWAR season. For pitchers, I think Zack Littell is a good choice to have a breakout season. I think he can make more of a name for himself and further prove how good and reliable he can be.

Which pitchers do you see the Twins signing in free agency next offseason?

There are a few good starting pitchers hitting the free agent market next offseason. I’ll name a few I could see the Twins re-signing, signing, or attempting to sign. I think the Twins will do almost everything they can to bring back 2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi. He’s in a good position to potentially get himself a big contract, hopefully from the Twins. A few pitchers I could see the Twins going after are Trevor Bauer. He had a little bit of a down year in 2019, he posted a 4.34 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, 4.14 SIERA, and a 3.3 fWAR. However, in 2018 he had the best season of his career with a 2.44 FIP, 3.14 xFIP, 3.21 SIERA, and a 5.8 fWAR. Definitely wouldn’t mind Trevor Bauer in a Twins uniform. Another pitcher I think the Twins will heavily pursue is James Paxton. In 2019, he produced a 3.86 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA, and a 3.9 fWAR. Since 2016, the lowest fWAR he has produced in a season is 3.5, coming in 2019.

Will Donaldson or Cruz have a better 2020 season?

I don’t expect Cruz to have a huge drop off in production in 2020, but I do think Donaldson will have a better season because he is younger. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz almost repeated his 2019 season though.

What does Rosario need to do to improve?

One big thing Rosario needs to change in order to improve is cut back on swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. In 2019, he swung at 46.3% of pitches he saw outside of the strike zone. Overall he swung at 51.9% of all pitches he faced. Those numbers are not good. There’s a reason pitchers threw outside of the zone 62.4% of the time compared to 58.6% in 2018. If he could change that issue, I think he could be a great hitter. A good amount of power and decent speed too.

Jake Cave

Jake Cave is arguably the Twins third best outfielder, below only Max Kepler and Byron Buxton. He’s been very underrated throughout his career, and when he gets consistent playing time, he can heat up fast. In 2019, he slashed .258/.351/.454 (.806 OPS), with a .343 wOBA, 113 wRC+, .263 xBA, .486 xSLG, .360 xwOBA, .483 xwOBACON, 43.8 Hard Hit %, 31.1 K%, 9.2 BB%, and a 0.9 fWAR in 228 plate appearances in 72 games. Defensively he put up a -2 DRS, -1.5 UZR, -2.8 UZR/150, and 2 OAA in 503.1 innings across all three outfield positions.

Zack Littell

Zack Littell quickly became one of the most reliable relievers in the Twins bullpen at the end of last season. He had a rough start to the season but came back and made an impact on the bullpen and the team. In 2019, he had a 2.68 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 4.06 SIERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.78 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 3.56 K/BB, 0.97 HR/9, .248 BAA, and a 0.6 fWAR in 37.0 innings pitched.

Matt Wisler

Matt Wisler was an under the radar waiver claim from the Mariners prior to the 2020 season. He started 2019 with the Padres and was traded to the Mariners in July. He should get a spot in the Twins bullpen for 2020. With the Padres and Mariners in 2019, he produced a 5.61 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 3.83 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.05 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 3.94 K/BB, 1.75 HR/9, .269 BAA, and a 0.4 fWAR in 51.1 innings pitched.

Kenta Maeda

Kenta Maeda is definitely one of the more underrated in the MLB. I’m not saying he’s a top MLB starter, but he doesn’t receive as much recognition as he should. He was acquired in the trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers. In 2019 with the Dodgers, he posted a 4.04 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 4.06 SIERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.90 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 3.31 K/BB, 1.29 HR/9, .200 BAA, and a 2.5 fWAR in 153.2 innings pitched. 2019 was a down year for Maeda. He was moved to a bullpen spot which he didn’t like. His 2018 was great however. He produced a 3.81 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.99 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, 3.56 K/BB, 0.93 HR/9, .238 BAA, and a 2.4 fWAR in 125.1 innings pitched.